Neva-Done? Early Voting Puts Trump In A Yuuuuge Hole In Nevada (TWEETS, VIDEO)

By
Darrell Lucus
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For most of the last few days, Nevada has whipsawed between blue and red on FiveThirtyEight’s map. However, there is a very tangible sign that things look a lot better for Hillary Clinton than Nate Silver’s model would have you believe. Early voting totals suggest that the Democrats will go into Election Day with a massive advantage–one that may be too big for Donald Trump to overcome.

There were already strong indications that Hillary was already banking a considerable lead in the Silver State. That trend continued unabated in the final week of early voting. In Clark County, home to Las Vegas, more than 52,000 more people voted early than in 2012. Out of that total, more than 45 percent of Clark County Democrats cast their votes before Election Day–down slightly from 2012. However, the percentage of Republicans who have already voted dropped as well–to 32 percent.

To illustrate just how massive early voting turnout was, 57,000 people turned out to vote in and around Las Vegas on Friday alone–the largest single-day turnout on record. Tim Hogan, a member of Hillary’s rapid response team, took pictures of the line outside one polling site, a Cardenas supermarket in Las Vegas.

A few hours later, Hogan caught pictures of people still waiting in line.

And it was even more massive inside, according to Hillary’s Nevada state director, Jorge Neri.

As it turned out, according to veteran Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston, who knows as much about the Nevada political scene as anyone, there were still a LOT of people waiting to vote when the polls officially closed.

KTNV-TV in Las Vegas captured the final hours of this record day. Watch here.

Ralston was going to make a final prediction for who would carry Nevada on Sunday. But when he saw the final early voting numbers on Saturday morning, he was forced to change those plans in a big way.

By this time, almost 73,000 more Democrats had voted early than Republicans in Clark County. According to Ralston, polling suggests that there won’t be a lot of ticket-splitting on either side, so Trump will likely go into Tuesday with at least a 65,000-vote deficit in Clark County. He thinks it would take nothing short of “a Miracle in Vegas” for Trump to close the gap.

How’s that? Well, in terms of population, Nevada is one of the most centralized states in the nation. The state has 2.89 million people–but more than two million of them live in Clark County. The next-largest county, Washoe County–home to Reno–has only 420,000 people. No other county-level jurisdiction has more than 60,000 people (the state capital, Carson City, is an independent city), and nine of them have fewer than 20,000 people.

Ralston believes that at best, Trump will win the “cow counties” (as Nevadans call the rural counties outside Las Vegas and Reno) by only 50,000 votes. To catch Hillary, Trump would not only have to run it up in Washoe–which has gone for Obama twice–but also hope that his deficit in Las Vegas drops by a lot. Cliff Notes version: Trump is going to need everything to break right on Tuesday for him to win Nevada, but the votes just aren’t there for him to do it.

Additionally, Ralston estimates that Trump would not only have to hold 90 percent of the Republican base, but also peel off at least 15 percent of Democrats and run it up among independents. He hasn’t seen anything to indicate that there will be a lot of ticket-splitting. Moreover, Hispanics in Nevada historically prefer to vote on Election Day–and as we all know, Hispanics across the nation have broken heavily for Hillary. All things considered, Ralston suspects that if the first totals from Nevada show Hillary with a lead of 60,000 to 70,000 votes, she has likely carried Nevada. And that would be absolutely devastating to Trump’s chances.

Remember, Hillary will likely hold onto the 242 electoral votes that have gone Democratic in every election since 1992. New Mexico and its five electoral votes are almost certainly locked up tight as well, so that makes 247. Trump has effectively ceded Virginia and its 13 votes to Hillary. That makes 260. Early voting totals from Colorado suggest that Hillary has run up an insurmountable lead for that state’s nine electoral votes, so that makes 269. Add Nevada’s six electoral votes to the ledger, and that makes 275. That’s all, folks.

This sounds very believable. Ralston correctly predicted that Harry Reid would hold on in 2010 even though polls suggested he would lose to Sharon Angle. He also correctly foresaw that the polls underestimated Obama’s margin in the state in 2012, based on early voting totals. Earlier this month, he told FiveThirtyEight that he thinks the polls are underestimating Hillary’s margin as well. If this is true, there’s a good chance that this massive early voting turnout in Nevada will be enough to put Hillary in the White House. Ralston also thinks this massive Democratic edge in banked votes will make Catherine Cortez Masto Nevada’s first female and first Latina Senator, but also flip both houses of the state legislature and two congressional seats.

Looks like Trump is going to get his wall. The only problem is, it’s going to be built on top of what remains of his effort to gaslight the country–by Democrats in Las Vegas.

(featured image courtesy Hogan’s Twitter)

Darrell Lucus
Darrell is a 30-something graduate of the University of North Carolina who considers himself a journalist of the old school. An attempt to turn him into a member of the religious right in college only succeeded in turning him into the religious right's worst nightmare--a charismatic Christian who is an unapologetic liberal. His desire to stand up for those who have been scared into silence only increased when he survived an abusive three-year marriage. You may know him on Daily Kos as Christian Dem in NC. Follow him on Twitter @DarrellLucus or connect with him on Facebook. Click here to buy Darrell a Mello Yello.

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