If you are someone who hopes that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton wins the election, you’re probably feeling slightly panicked over the latest actions taken by FBI James Comey.
More email releases? More mystery messages to be investigated? This close to the election?
Yikes!
Democrats could use a large helping of good news right about now.
Thanks to the early voters in the important swing state of Nevada, that good news is here.
The Huffington Post reports that a look at voter registrations shows that Democrats had a roughly seven point lead of Republicans in early voting in Nevada. Of course, that doesn’t insure that every voter stuck to their registered party, but polls show that the majority of voters do just that.
If Democrats were fearing that Comey’s unprecedented letter to Congress might stop party loyalists from coming out early, they can relax. Nevada polls show that the number of Democrats voting on Saturday actually increased by nearly 3,000 people.
This is in keeping with the numbers of voters enrolled overall. There are about 90,000 more Democrats than Republicans registered to vote in Nevada. A well known Nevada political reporter, Jon Ralston, says that if that trend continues until the election, it will be nearly impossible for Trump to pull out a win.
That’s pretty encouraging!
It gets even better. An analysis of several national polls shows that if Clinton does win in Nevada, she could lose every other big swing state and still become President.
Ralston says that the odds of Trump winning in the state are very slim. He says:
“If you assume he and Hillary Clinton get 90 percent of their bases (and almost no poll shows Trump doing that well), and she loses indies by 20 points (and most here show her up with indies) she STILL wins the state by 2 points.
Let’s suppose Republicans end up coalescing and he gets 90 percent and she gets only 80 percent of Democrats ― a highly unlikely scenario, to put it mildly ― he would still need to win indies by at least 10 points to win the state.”
So take heart, Democratic leaning friends. The Director Comeys of the world haven’t managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Things are still looking hopeful for the survival of the American experiment.
