By any standard, Donald Trump is cratering. As of Friday, FiveThirtyEight pegs his average approval rating at 38.7 percent–up slightly from last week, but still the lowest on record for a newly-elected president at this stage. It would be even lower than that if not for a poll released on Friday from Rasmussen Reports, a notoriously Republican-skewing pollster. That poll has him at 46 percent–the only poll in the last week that has him north of 41 percent.
But believe it or not, there may be even stronger evidence that Trump is in trouble–and it comes from crimson-red Alabama. The man who was appointed to take the Senate seat of now-Attorney General Jeff Sessions may be headed for a crushing defeat in a runoff for the Republican nomination.
When Sessions was confirmed as Attorney General, then-Governor Robert Bentley appointed state attorney general Luther Strange to hold the seat until a special election in November 2018. However, when Bentley was forced to resign in April, his successor, Kay Ivey, moved the primary to this coming December.
Strange’s hold on the seat seemingly became even more tenuous when former state chief justice Roy Moore, long a darling of the social conservatives who dominate the Alabama GOP, jumped into the race. But then Trump put a huge thumb on the scale in favor of Strange.
Senator Luther Strange has done a great job representing the people of the Great State of Alabama. He has my complete and total endorsement!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 9, 2017
Trump also recorded a robocall for Strange ahead of the primary.
You would have thought that would have made a difference. As we now know, after Trump came to Mobile in August 2015, the momentum behind his drive to the GOP nomination took on that of a Sherman tank. But then the August 15 primary came. Moore took first place with 39 percent of the vote, six points ahead of Strange.
Now a new poll from Montgomery-based pollster Southeast Research suggests that Moore is picking up momentum not unlike what Trump picked up at that Mobile rally. Moore has 52 percent support to 36 percent for Strange. As bad as those numbers look for Strange, the crosstabs look even worse. He loses badly among conservatives, 57-32. He also gets blown out among evangelicals, 54-32. Since the Alabama Republican primary electorate not only skews hard right, but is also deeply fundified, these numbers are positively lethal for Strange if they hold through the runoff.
What is even more telling is that the very same poll found Alabama voters very much love Trump; almost 63 percent of respondents had a “strongly favorable” view of how he’s doing. The obvious conclusion–Trump’s endorsement doesn’t appear to carry as much weight as conventional wisdom may suggest.
This comes despite a concerted effort on Strange’s part to identify with Trump. For instance, he’s put out campaign ads tabbing Moore as a “swamp creature”–a favorite insult among Trump diehards.
He also seemed to have a finger on the pulse of Alabamians when he claimed that his state really doesn’t care about any potential collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin. If this poll is any indication, though, Alabama Republicans don’t seem to be willing to vote for someone just because Trump effectively tells them to do so.
While a Moore victory in the runoff would represent a major slap in the face to Trump, we shouldn’t be rejoicing at this yet. There’s a very good chance that we’d be getting someone in the Senate who believes state officials aren’t obligated to obey the marriage equality decision, and also thinks allowing marriage equality is outside the power of the courts. In other words–if Moore wins in December, we’d be trading someone who is merely a garden-variety Trumpbot for a full-blown theocrat.
What about the Democrat in the race, former U. S. Attorney Doug Jones? Well, given that Alabama has turned an almost unrecognizable shade of red, Jones will have his work cut out for him even if he faces Moore. In a stark indication of how far the Democrats’ fortunes have sunk in Alabama, only 165,000 people turned out for the Democratic primary, compared to over 420,000 for the Republican primary. Simply put, that isn’t going to get it done in December. While Moore’s presence would theoretically make it easier to generate support, we have to be realistic–Jones is going to need almost everything to break right in December.
Jones still deserves a lot of credit for stepping up in a race that would be a tough lift under any conditions. However, if this poll is accurate and Moore ends up as the Republican nominee, Jones is going to need a lot of help in December. After all, the thought of saying “Senator Roy Moore” isn’t much more palatable than having a guy in the Senate who thinks Trump walks on water.
(featured image courtesy Strange’s Facebook)
