Even Fox News Admits Donald Trump Is Losing A State He Can’t Afford To Lose

All indications are that this weekend’s dustup over Hillary Clinton’s emails has merely changed Donald Trump’s route to 270 electoral votes from all but impossible to very long. As I write this on Tuesday night, FiveThirtyEight has pegged Hillary’s chances at winning the Electoral College at 71 percent. Well, on Tuesday afternoon, we got a very good reminder of just how steep Trump’s path to victory really is. The GOP’s favorite network admitted that a state that Trump literally cannot afford to lose is slipping away from him. Specifically, my home state of North Carolina.

Fox News Channel’s Decision Team has had North Carolina as a toss-up for some time. However, on Tuesday, the team moved the Tar Heel State to “lean Democratic.” However, in the last 23 polls analyzed by RealClearPolitics, Hillary has led in all but two of them. More importantly, she has led in all but one poll since mid-September.

The biggest factor weighing in Fox News’ mind, however, is Hillary’s ground operation. As late as August, Trump had no infrastructure to speak of in North Carolina. Last month, though, Trump poured virtually all of his resources into winning just four states–Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. It came at a high price, though–effectively ceding Virginia to Hillary.

When this announcement crawled across Fox News’ screen, it’s a safe bet that most of Trump’s campaign staffers sat up bolt-upright in their chairs. How’s that? Well, it’s a safe bet that Hillary will win all of the states that have voted Democratic in every election since 1992, barring a total collapse. Between them, those states have 242 electoral votes. He’s already ceded Virginia and its 13 electoral votes to Hillary, so that makes 255 electoral votes. Add North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, and that would make 270. Le fin.

Realistically, though, if you give Hillary North Carolina, you can safely assume that if Hillary flips North Carolina, then Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico have all stayed blue. Which means at worst, a Hillary win in North Carolina means that Trump’s best-case scenario–flipping Florida, Iowa, and Ohio–still leaves him 26 electoral votes short. This is a long-winded way of saying that Trump literally cannot afford to lose North Carolina if he has any realistic hope of winning the election.

If early voting numbers are any indication, Trump will have a very steep hill to climb on Election Day. As of Tuesday night, The New York Times’ Upshot estimated that Hillary is out to an 11-point lead among early voters–and that’s even with early voting hours being slashed. More importantly, Upshot estimates that almost half of likely voters have already voted. If this is accurate, it’s going to be very difficult for Trump to close the gap.

I suspect Fox News has seen this data as well. That may explain why, no matter how much it may have tried, it can’t find a way to give an edge to Trump in a state that, mathematically and realistically, he can’t afford to lose. As a North Carolinian, this warms the cockles of my heart.

(featured image: screenshot courtesy Fox News Channel)

Darrell is a 30-something graduate of the University of North Carolina who considers himself a journalist of the old school. An attempt to turn him into a member of the religious right in college only succeeded in turning him into the religious right's worst nightmare--a charismatic Christian who is an unapologetic liberal. His desire to stand up for those who have been scared into silence only increased when he survived an abusive three-year marriage. You may know him on Daily Kos as Christian Dem in NC. Follow him on Twitter @DarrellLucus or connect with him on Facebook. Click here to buy Darrell a Mello Yello.