Famed political analyst Larry Sabato shocked CNN anchor Carol Costello when he said he believes Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton will get 352 Electoral College votes on November 8.
Clinton ‘At Her Peak For The Year’
Sabato is considered one of the best in the business when it comes to political predictions. When he forecasts election results, people listen.
That’s why his prediction of a Clinton landslide is not something to dismiss. He said:
“We now have Hillary Clinton at her peak for the year, at 352 electoral votes.”
CNN has Clinton ahead, but not quite as far ahead as that. Perhaps that’s why CNN anchor Carol Costello couldn’t believe what she was hearing:
“What, wait, 352? … OK, you’ve just stunned me into silence, so it’s a good time to end it here.”
352 is definitely not out of the question. Obama won 365 Electoral College votes in 2008, for instance. It is, however, many more votes than have been predicted for Clinton thus far.
Sabato is predicting a Clinton win in Arizona and is even referring to Utah, of all places, as a toss-up state now.
How Does The Electoral College Work?
When you hear things like “red state” and “blue state” in the news, they’re referring to the states’ voting patterns in past elections. The reason you may see little to no ads for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in California, for instance, is because its a solidly Democratic state. The same goes for Clinton ads in someplace like Mississippi. And the Electoral College’s state-by-state votes are really the ones that matter.
The Electoral College is the body that truly elects the president. Each state’s electors are equal to their number of Representatives in the House plus their two Senators. The exception is Washington, D.C.; they have no representation in the House or Senate, but they do get three Electoral College votes. Add all of these together, and you get 538 total Electoral College votes. To win, a candidate needs to get 270 of them.
While the electors are not required by law, in most states, to cast their ballot in accordance with the way their state’s population votes, they have done so 99 percent of the time.
Republican candidates for President always face an uphill battle, since the more populous states — the ones with the most Electoral College votes — are solidly blue states. Thus, in any race, the Democratic candidate is considered to start with 188 “solid” votes plus 25 “likely” votes. The numbers for Republicans are lower, at 136 “solid” votes plus 27 “likely” votes.
Of course, this election is starting to turn some of that on its ear. Utah is one of the states that delivers six of those 27 “likely” votes, and now, it’s in play. Arizona is another one; its 11 votes are usually in the “lean Republican” column, but now, Sabato thinks Clinton could clinch it.
Watch Sabato shock the CNN anchor with his prediction here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCFEuhASlwY
Featured Image via screenshot from YouTube video
