New research shows that Republicans coming into the House of Representatives are less likely to support Speaker Paul Ryan.
Lobbyist Bruce Mehlman developed his report by looking at three categories of GOP representatives in the House. Of the 113 “Loyalists” who support Ryan’s agenda, nearly 25% are listed as “at risk” of losing their seats in the upcoming election. Of the “Persuadables” – Republicans who sometimes favor and sometimes oppose Ryan’s leadership – 15 of the 111 are at risk.
The final category, “Antagonists,” are safe. These are Republicans who voted against major Republican policies at least seven times. None of the 22 Antagonists are at risk.
A Divided Party
Mehlman’s research shows how divided the GOP is. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is the most obvious symbol of the Republican Party’s identity crisis. But the party has been tearing itself apart for years.
The Tea Party movement that began in 2007 continues to be a powerful force within the GOP. Michelle Bachman, Sarah Palin, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio – all of whom ran for President or Vice President in recent elections – have the support of the Tea Party. Mainstream Republicans, however, have only an uneasy alliance with the Tea Party.
The newest divide within the Party is between pro-Trumpers and anti-Trumpers. While Ryan and most of the GOP establishment have finally endorsed Trump, they were slow to do so.
Good News For the Left
Despite the potential decline of Republican loyalists, experts expect the House to remain in Republican control even after the November elections. But the odds of flipping the Senate – where 24 Republican seats but just 9 Democratic seats seats are up for grabs – look somewhat better.
In presidential election years, voters often vote a straight ticket. The means that the party that wins the presidency also usually wins the most congressional races. Since Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is expected to defeat Donald Trump the likelihood of a Democratic Senate is high.
On the last note, watch how even Donald Trump won’t endorse Paul Ryan.
Featured image via Motherjones.
