The Stock Market Has Picked The Next President: ‘Investors Like Landslide Victories’

The polls are not looking great for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. He is trailing Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in nearly every instance, sometimes by double digit margins. If there is one place Trump should be in the lead, it should be in the stock market. Trump allegedly made his name and fortune by savvy investments and business decisions, right?

Nope. Wall Street thinks it will be Clinton in a landslide.

In a report from Market Watch, David Woo, a strategist for Merrill Lynch, had this to say about the 2016 election:

“The market appears to have decided not only that [Hillary] Clinton will win, but that it won’t be close… Investors like landslide victories.”

According to data from the stock market over the last several elections, all signs are currently pointing to a Hillary Clinton victory by a wide margin. The report indicates that Clinton is currently sitting on an 80% chance to achieve victory in November, per data from Iowa Electronic Markets.

The indicator of a Clinton victory lies in the performance of the S&P 500. According to the report:

“Since 1944, the incumbent person or party was reelected 82% of the time when the S&P 500 rose between July 31 and Oct. 31… The only exceptions were in 1968 and 1980, when there were popular third-party candidates in the picture.”

Earlier this month, the S&P 500 reached a record high of 2193.81. It has increased every month for six straight months.

Although the market indicates a Clinton victory, it also seems to be pointing at no significant change in congress or policy. This will most likely mean that the United States is looking at lower interest rates and a weaker dollar internationally. The report also states that if the same party controls both the White House and congress, interest rates will rise and the dollar will see an increase in value.

Regardless, add another name to the list of polls indicating a Clinton victory. Trump supporters will no doubt claim this one is not true either.

Featured Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore and Michael Vadon via Wikimedia Commons available under a CC Attribution-ShareAlike license.