Kellyanne Conway, newly appointed manager of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, has claimed that a silent majority of undercover voters will sweep the Republican candidate to victory in November’s election.
Conway believes that a large number of people will keep their true intentions secret and may even tell advance pollsters they intend to vote for the more progressive candidate. Speaking last night on a U.K. documentary entitled President Trump: Can He Really Win?, she said:
“It’s become socially desirable, especially if you’re a college educated person in the U.S., to say that you’re against Donald Trump.”
She went on to add:
“People who are supporting Donald Trump, who have not voted Republican in the past, who have not voted in quite a while, are so tired of arguing with family and friends and colleagues about their support of Donald Trump that they just decided not to discuss it.”
Once this stigmatized sector reaches the anonymity of the polling booth, Conway contends, they will vote for Trump in large enough numbers to deliver a win.
While it may be tempting to dismiss or ridicule the theory, it does have a precedent. Voters have been known to tell pre-election surveys they will support the more progressive candidate, then change their allegiance on polling day, causing a shock result.
This phenomenon has been named the Bradley Effect after Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American candidate who lost the race to be California’s state governor in 1982, despite leading in the run-up.
Conway also supported her argument by citing Britain’s recent Brexit referendum. Pre-election polls, political commentators – and even some Brexit campaign leaders – all tipped Britain to remain in the EU. Yet the nation woke up the morning after the vote to find that Brexit had become the reality.
Even though he has presided over what may be the most bizarre, chaotic and divisive campaign in history, it cannot be assumed that Trump can’t win. Writing for MarketWatch today, columnist Brett Arends said:
“It’s still either party’s race. Most elections see swings of several points between August and early November. Some see even bigger ones — at this point in 1988 Vice President George H.W. Bush looked like a no-hoper against Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. Bush went on to win by seven points. There is no reason to think this election will be less volatile than the norm.”
Last night’s documentary was the second in a series from Channel 4 TV. Watch this fascinating excerpt from the first edition of President Trump: Can He Really Win?, which aired in April.
Featured image: Michael Vadon via Wikimedia Commons/Attribution Share-Alike 4.0 International License
