The Republicans currently hold a 54-46 majority in the United States Senate, but a new model and projection from the Huffington Post shows that they have a very high probability of losing that majority when the votes are counted in November.
According to the Huffington Post Senate model, which is based on aggregate polling data, Democrats now have a 78 percent chance of gaining 50 or more seats in the new Senate, which will convene in 2017. There’s a 55 percent chance the Senate will make a full swing to Democratic control, and a 23 percent chance that a tie will leave both parties holding 50 seats, which would leave the newly-elected Vice President to cast the deciding vote when ties occur.
But who exactly will be the Vice President who replaces Joe Biden? Based on the latest projections and models, it would be Tim Kaine, as he and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton have an 80 percent probability of winning the election over GOP nominees Donald Trump and Mike Pence.
This chart shows the current projections for contested Senate races which are seen as wins for the Democrats:
As of now, the most competitive races are in the states of Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
The chart below shows which races will probably go in the direction of the GOP:
The North Carolina and Pennsylvania races have been called for Republicans, but their chances of retaining those seats is no better than a coin toss: 50-50.
So on Election Night, in addition to watching the returns in the race for the White House, Democrats and progressives will have a close eye on several of these crucial Senate races as well. But it’s beginning to look like a very Blue evening for the Democrats. And the GOP will merely be singing the blues.
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