Presidential campaigns have become very homogenized over the past couple of years. States like Ohio and Florida are almost always the major battle ground states.There are also a couple of states like New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa that could have an outsider’s chance of seriously affecting the presidential election.
Campaign staffs are well aware of this and send large amounts of people and resources into these states. The rest of the nation, although remaining active in the political process, know that the candidates will spend less attention on their respective states considering the historical tendencies of voters. Many states have voted Republican or Democrat for a number of years, and this is not likely to change anytime soon.
However, with changing demographics and Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s divisive campaign, many states that are typically Republican-leaning are on the brink of turning Democrat. These states are either close in the polls or have swung Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s way during the general election campaign.
A number of polls have Clinton within striking distance in a few states that were never in play with her Democratic party predecessors. She has reportedly recognized this unique opportunity, and has instructed her campaign staff to send extra money and resources to local offices in these key states.
If these recent polls are to be believed, it would seem extremely unlikely that Donald Trump would become the next President of the United States. His path to getting 270 electoral votes is becoming less and less likely to happen. Everything would have to go perfectly for him to cross that voting threshold and win the general election.
Meanwhile Clinton could have several different scenarios that could ultimately carry her to the White House come November. She could potentially upend states in the coastal South, the Midwest, or even the West to garner the 270 electoral votes she needs to win the presidency.
Here is a look at several states that have proven to be problematic for Donald Trump and represent new opportunities for Hillary Clinton and her campaign.
Georgia
The song “Georgia on My Mind” has taken a new meaning for Hillary Clinton these days. According to a JMC Analytics survey, she is beating Donald Trump by seven percentage points.
This turnaround for Clinton and Democrats in the state is mainly because of the large number of women that are supporting her campaign. She is beating Donald Trump by a 48-35 percent margin with women, and is carrying college-educated voters by an eleven percent margin.
It is also important to note that the percentage of African-Americans in Georgia has increased by nearly five percent according to 2010 census data. This voting group has supported Democratic candidates with a high percentage in the past, and are expected to do so in the future.
Hillary Clinton and her campaign see these polling advantages and demographic changes, and are looking to amplify grass roots efforts in order to win come November. If Trump were to carry Northern industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, Clinton could still win with a “new south” strategy which would include Georgia, Virginia, and North Carolina.
Arizona
Arizona is an interesting state for a number of reasons. The first being it is a state that overwhelmingly voted for Donald Trump during the Republican primaries. There is a strong Tea Party affiliation within many Arizona communities, and that has helped to keep the state Republican-leaning for the past couple of presidential elections.
With that said, Trump is only leading Clinton by two percentage points in the state. Recent polling shows Trump beating Clinton by a 44-42 percent margin. That is well within the margin for error, and gives Clinton and her campaign a fighting chance in this state come November.
This fighting chance is due to a growing number of Hispanics and highly-educated liberals that have moved into the state. According to statistics, the Hispanic population has increased to 22 percent of Arizona’s total population. And a lot more liberal, well-educated members of other western states have started migrating and settling down in suburbs of the capital city Phoenix.
These two factors, combined with over 400,000 Mormon residents who are reticent to vote for Trump, has the Clinton campaign eager to do all they can to eke out a victory in this state. They recognize that states with a growing number of Hispanics represent a minefield of opportunities that will hopefully pay off for Democrats in future election cycles.
Texas
The state of Texas has been a source of consternation for Democrats over the past twenty years. With a growing number of Hispanics and expanding urbanization, one would think that people in this state would vote in favor of Democrats more often.
Current President Barack Obama and Vice Presidential candidate Tim Kaine have made multiple stops there over the years to raise money for Democratic elections and hope that one day their efforts will be rewarded with a Democrat winning Texas during a presidential election.
Democrats view the state of Texas in a similar light to the state of California which was once considered to be a conservative state. Of course with growing numbers of minorities and the highly educated, California has been the pillar of the Democratic Party for a number of years. Many politicians view Texas as a potential “California in the making.”
While the future may be bright for the Democratic Party here in Texas, the current election cycle is still an uphill battle for the Clinton campaign. Recent polling shows her down eight percentage points to Donald Trump, a number that is likely too large to be overcome by ordinary campaigning tactics.
Still, if large numbers of Hispanics vote and Republicans jump on the “never Trump” bandwagon, a Texas win for Hillary Clinton is not entirely out of the question.
Pennsylvania
During the early parts of the general election campaign season, all of the talk was focused on Donald Trump and his ability to tap into anti-immigration, anti-trade sentiment. Political pundits were predicting that these sentiments could lead to Donald Trump picking up the important swing state of Pennsylvania.
This has been true to a certain extent. Trump has gained significant support from rural areas in the state of Pennsylvania. However, he is still getting slammed in major cities like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
According to recent polling, Clinton is up by forty percentage points in Philadelphia and the surrounding areas. Clinton’s dominance in the major urban cities has led to her 48-37 percent advantage of Trump statewide.
The bottom line is that Hillary Clinton has a high likelihood of carrying the always tricky state of Pennsylvania. Unless Donald Trump can make major inroads in cities like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, he will have to come up with another electoral strategy to reach the 270 votes needed to win the presidency.
Here is a video of Hillary Clinton and current Vice President Joe Biden at a campaign rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania on August 15th, 2016:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7VSycMWG_E
Feature Image taken from YouTube video
