Possible October Surprise: RNC Planning To Toss Trump Overboard By Early Fall

It is now clear that if the race for president continues on its current course, Donald Trump is headed for the most humiliating defeat of a Republican presidential candidate in at least half a century. Politico reports that a number of Republican National Committee officials have come to the same conclusion. Apparently they are willing to do something that seems unthinkable in a presidential election year. That is, they are willing to toss their presidential standardbearer overboard in order to keep downballot Republicans from getting capsized by a Hillary Clinton tsunami.

Donald Trump in Muscatine, Iowa (image courtesy Evan Guest, available under a Creative Commons BY license)
Donald Trump in Muscatine, Iowa (image courtesy Evan Guest, available under a Creative Commons BY license)

Politico learned that RNC communications chief Sean Spicer gathered 14 political reporters at RNC headquarters in Washington on Wednesday to tell them that the RNC is about to lose patience with the Donald. According to several reporters on hand at the meeting, Spicer said that the GOP’s infrastructure is as strong as it has been in memory. For instance, it boasts “a data system they believe rivals what Obama built in 2012.” And yet, despite this, every poll trendline since the conventions shows Trump falling off a cliff.

Spicer told the gathering that RNC officials have decided that unless Trump can turn things around by mid-October, they may have no option but to divert resources away from Trump in order to save the GOP’s majorities in the House and Senate. He has communicated a similar message to party insiders. Apparently RNC chairman Reince Priebus has said as much to Trump. Politico learned that Preibus is at his wit’s end after trying to rein in Trump, and has told Trump that the RNC may not be able to offer more assistance unless the Donald cools it. In other words–this is an October surprise that shouldn’t come as a surprise to the Donald.

It’s not just Trump’s temperament that has senior RNC officials tearing their hair out. They’re at a loss to understand why Trump scheduled events in a number of states that seem to be long out of reach. For instance, Trump scheduled a number of events in Colorado and Virginia, a couple of swing states that don’t look so swingy anymore. Nate Silver rates Hillary’s chances of winning both at almost 90 percent. He even scheduled an event in Connecticut–a state that he would likely only win in the event of a 40-plus state Republican landslide. According to one RNC staffer, Trump “has shown no interest” in assembling the broad coalition he needs to win.

However, a number of GOP operatives believe that if the RNC is going to toss Trump overboard, it may have to do so sooner than October if it has any hope of shortening Hillary’s coattails. One RNC member told Politico that the window is significantly limited because absentee voting for servicemen and overseas residents is due to start very soon in some states. In Ohio, for instance, military and overseas absentee voting starts on September 24. For that reason, this RNC member thinks “mid-September would probably be the latest” that the RNC could shift financial and ground resources downballot “and have any real impact.”

Publicly, the RNC and Trump have maintained a united front. For instance, Priebus showed up at a Trump rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, and told the crowd not to believe any “garbage” that suggests the GOP is willing to toss Trump overboard. Spicer himself maintains that he doesn’t think Trump’s current deficit is too big to overcome.

Privately, however, major Republican donors have gotten word that when they write checks to the joint Trump-RNC fundraising committee, they can specify how much of it should actually go to the Donald. According to one fundraiser, a number of leery donors have been told that “people can give to the RNC and not him (Trump).”

To my knowledge, I can’t recall hearing even faint whispers that a major party is even thinking about effectively conceding the presidency this far out from Election Day. It would serve the GOP right if it had to toss Trump overboard in September or October, though. That’s what you get when you try to foist a manifestly unfit candidate on the nation.

Darrell is a 30-something graduate of the University of North Carolina who considers himself a journalist of the old school. An attempt to turn him into a member of the religious right in college only succeeded in turning him into the religious right's worst nightmare--a charismatic Christian who is an unapologetic liberal. His desire to stand up for those who have been scared into silence only increased when he survived an abusive three-year marriage. You may know him on Daily Kos as Christian Dem in NC. Follow him on Twitter @DarrellLucus or connect with him on Facebook. Click here to buy Darrell a Mello Yello.