Holy Effing Crap! Thanks To Trump, Another Red State Is In Play

Donald Trump
Image by Gage Skidmore, via Flickr/CC

In recent days, we’ve seen polls showing Hillary Clinton either leading or really close in a number of normally red states, like Arizona and Georgia. That’s no surprise; those states were trending purple anyway. But a recent poll out of one normally crimson-red state suggests that Donald Trump is going to have his work cut out for him in territory that competent Republican would have long since salted away by now. Namely, South Carolina.

Public Policy Polling, one of the most accurate pollsters in the business, recently conducted a poll for the South Carolina Democratic Party. The results are nothing short of staggering. Trump leads Hillary by the slimmest of margins, 41-39–within the poll’s 2.7 percent margin of error. Gary Johnson takes five percent, and Jill Stein takes two percent.

Based on the internals, there’s not a whole lot for Republicans or Trump supporters to like. The only reason Trump is ahead is because seniors favor him by a punishing 58-30 margin. Among voters younger than 65, Hillary is actually leading, 41-36. PPP suspects that means South Carolina could potentially be a battleground in the years ahead. In other words, this may be one of the last times that this state is on the sidelines in a presidential election. Lest you dismiss this as just a partisan Democratic poll, Tim Scott is well ahead in his bid for a full term; he leads Democratic challenger Thomas Dixon 45-28–well outpacing Trump.

A little historical context is in order. Among Southern states, South Carolina has undergone one of the most dramatic shifts to the GOP. Prior to the 1950s, the GOP was lucky to get even one percent of the vote in presidential elections. However, when the Democrats adopted a strong civil rights plank in 1948, then-governor Strom Thurmond founded the States’ Rights Democratic Party–the Dixiecrats–which took over the local Democratic machinery in South Carolina and three other Southern states. As the Dixiecrat candidate, Thurmond carried all four states where the Dixiecrats had taken over the Democratic machinery, and nearly succeeded in throwing the election to the House of Representatives.

This began a slow, but unmistakable, trend toward the GOP in the Palmetto State, culminating in Barry Goldwater carrying the state in a landslide in 1964. In 1968, George Wallace finished second to Richard Nixon, pushing Hubert Humphrey into third place. Jimmy Carter won the state easily in 1976, and barely lost it to Ronald Reagan in 1980. Since then, South Carolina has been an automatic deposit in the GOP’s bank account. The fact it’s even potentially in the discussion at this stage is nothing short of staggering.

This poll also revealed that South Carolinians seem to be coming around on LGBT rights. A whopping 53 percent of South Carolinians support some form of nondiscrimination protection for the state’s LGBT residents. Even more surprisingly, Republicans are practically tied on this question, with 37 percent opposing such a law and 36 percent favoring it. That’s very telling, considering that the South Carolina GOP has long had a strong social conservative tint. It may also explain why there was no hue and cry after Nikki Haley kiboshed an attempt to enact a copy of North Carolina’s hideous bathroom bill.

South Carolina isn’t all that significant electorally; it only has nine electoral votes. But there is no way that this state should be anywhere near this close less than 90 days before the election. Imagine a poll showing Hillary statistically tied with a Republican at this stage in, say, Connecticut or New Jersey. This poll can only be described as a flashing red light for Trump and the GOP.

Darrell is a 30-something graduate of the University of North Carolina who considers himself a journalist of the old school. An attempt to turn him into a member of the religious right in college only succeeded in turning him into the religious right's worst nightmare--a charismatic Christian who is an unapologetic liberal. His desire to stand up for those who have been scared into silence only increased when he survived an abusive three-year marriage. You may know him on Daily Kos as Christian Dem in NC. Follow him on Twitter @DarrellLucus or connect with him on Facebook. Click here to buy Darrell a Mello Yello.