Most of us spent this week tearing our hair out at polls showing Donald Trump had pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton due to a modest convention bounce. But a new poll out of a key swing state that Trump absolutely, positively must have in order to have any shot of victory suggests those fears may be misplaced. Indeed, it suggests that Hillary is already getting a sizable bounce.
Suffolk University hit the streets of Pennsylvania on Monday, just as the Democratic National Convention was getting underway in Philadelphia. The verdict? Hillary is out to a nine-point lead over Trump, 50-41. If Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are included, Hillary’s lead shrinks to 45-37, with Johnson and Stein polling in single digits.
This poll appears to be a bit generous for the blue team. Indeed, Nate Cohn of The New York Times thought that young voters may have been a bit overrepresented, but still thinks Hillary is leading in Pennsylvania.
Suffolk looks a bit too young and diverse (though Clinton lead is outside of the, shall we say, margin of weighting) pic.twitter.com/DIqPmQTDhT
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) July 28, 2016
Whether it’s inflated or not, this poll looks a lot more believable than the last public poll out of Pennsylvania–a Quinnipiac poll showing Trump just barely ahead, 43-41. But that poll was conducted over a whopping 12 days from June 30 to July 11–which is pretty long, even allowing for the Fourth of July weekend. Indeed, if you take that poll out of the Pollster graph, the average changes from a 43-39 Hillary lead to a 49-40 Hillary lead.
There’s really no good news for Trump in this poll. Hillary’s lead appears to be due almost entirely to the Democrats coming home. Hillary gets the support of 83 percent of Democrats, while Trump only has the support of 76 percent of Republicans. She also seems to be following the traditional path for a Democrat to win the nation’s second state–run it up in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. According to the internals, Philadelphia is breaking heavily for Hillary by a whopping 72-24 margin, while she leads in Pittsburgh 57-39.
Trump is making a big push in Pennsylvania, since any realistic path for him to get to 270 has to go through the Keystone State. The only realistic place for him to get enough votes to overcome the likely Hillary tsunami in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh would be to run it up in Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and northeastern Pennsylvania. Although it is the most Democratic region in the state outside Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the region’s Democrats are not as liberal as their counterparts in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Indeed, Trump and his running mate, Mike Pence, stumped in Scranton on Wednesday.
But it doesn’t look like Trump has much room for error here. Hillary and Trump are essentially tied in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area; Hillary leads 47-45. However, a whopping 91 percent of Hillary’s supporters in northeastern Pennsylvania are not willing to switch to the Donald. Throw in that Joe Biden–a Scranton native–is almost certain to hit the stump for Hillary, and Trump’s path to turn Pennsylvania red is a lot more difficult than it looks.
All in all, if I were in the Trump campaign, this poll should make me very afraid. Inflated or not, all indications are that Hillary is leading in Pennsylvania.
