Climate change scientists from Columbia University have predicted that as temperatures rise in New York City, the number of heat related deaths could top 3,000 by 2080.
RawStory reported that the scientists used a variety of climate change models and demographic studies to make the predictions. They also tried to account for adaptations to the rising heat, through the use of things like cooling centers.
First author Elisaveta Petkova explained that the scientists used 33 global climate models to conduct the study. That data was then combined with predictions about how the population of New York might grow by 2080. The study also looked at projected greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, instead of looking at emissions.
Petkova underscored the importance of the information in the study by saying:
“We were surprised by the wide range of potential public health impacts depending on the specific combination of climate, adaptation and demographic scenarios.”
Although there are still a huge number of American political leaders who deny the existence of climate change, the science is becoming overwhelming.
Temperatures are rising. The current study takes a look at how that rise will affect the residents of at least one major city.
One of the predictions about increasing heat is an increase in disease. Two years ago the Americas suffered an outbreak of the formerly rare virus chikungunya. This dangerous mosquito born virus had never been seen in the Americas before that outbreak. It results in more than 1.5 million cases across the region.
Petkova pointed out that there are two possible approaches to dealing with the predicted increase in heat related diseases and deaths.
First, humans across the globe could reduce fossil fuel emissions. Given the huge amount of money donated to American politicians by the fossil fuel industry, this is an unlikely option.
The second possibility would be to make changes in infrastructure and housing to better protect people from the heat. Increased air conditioning and the use of reflective roofing materials are two possible adaptations that could save lives.
Of course, increasing air conditioning would most likely increase fossil fuel consumption, meaning more emissions, meaning more heat, meaning more death.
Maybe we should look more carefully at that first option, huh?
