Call it the Republican Dilemma: the GOP doesn’t fear Donald Trump and the possibility of him losing by a historic margin nearly as much as they fear losing their control of the Senate. Quite frankly, many Republicans are secretly cheering for Trump to lose big to Hillary Clinton if only because it will destroy Trump as a future threat within the GOP.
But, what if Trump loses and the Republicans also lose the Senate? That would assure that a President Hillary Clinton could easily appoint progressive judges to the federal judiciary, including perhaps two or three Supreme Court justices in four years. This is the nightmare scenario which has Republicans bathed in sweat when they contemplate the near future.
Here are five Republican Senators who could well be history after November:
Mark Kirk-Illinois
Mark Kirk must feel like an endangered species these days. His opponent, Democratic nominee Tammy Duckworth, breezed through a primary challenge in March, and she also has more money in her campaign account. Even worse, GOP super PACs have left Illinois off their early target lists for outside spending. Illinois leans Democratic, and Kirk would appear to be on his way out.
Ron Johnson-Wisconsin
The biggest problem for Johnson is that he’s running against one of the most well-known and well-liked figures in Wisconsin, former Senator Russ Feingold, who has led in every poll conducted for this race.
Feingold also continues to lead in the money race. He has $6.4 million on hand to Johnson’s $5.5 million.
It appears that Feingold has this race in the bag, but expect outside money to come flowing in to try and save Johnson.
Kelly Ayotte-New Hampshire
Ayotte has a difficult and narrow line she has to try and walk. Trump won the New Hampshire primary by a huge margin, but Ayotte has reportedly been critical of the Donald behind closed doors and said he is hurting down ticket races across the country.
Her challenger, Maggie Hassan, has been polling within one or two points, and has also been even in some recent surveys. This is one race to keep an eye on in November. It could be a harbinger which indicates that Trump has indeed hurt Republicans running on the same ticket.
Pennsylvania-Pat Toomey
Even though Toomey is running against a relatively unknown Democrat–Katie McGinty–he maintains a tenuous lead in most polls.
Pennsylvania tends to go Democratic in Presidential elections, and with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, the ads in favor of McGinty practically write themselves.
Toomey has been careful of how he deals with the matter of Donald Trump, and could well disavow him before the election.
Ohio-Rob Portman
If indeed Trump loses big–including in Ohio–Portman could be swept away in the Clinton wave.
Former Gov. Ted Strickland, Portman’s Democratic opponent, has struggled some as a candidate, but if there’s a large turnout from Democratic base voters, especially women and African-Americans, Portman’s $13 million in campaign funds might not save him.
Keep an eye on these five Senate races. They will likely determine if the Senate remains in GOP hands or flips to the Democrats.
h/t Politico
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