Any fair-minded person in this country should be frightened to death at the prospect of Donald Trump succeeding in his bid to buy the presidency. Well, a lot of people outside this country are scared as well. A prominent UK-based global economic research firm recently ranked a potential Trump presidency as one of the top ten threats facing the global economy.
The Economist Intelligence Unit, a research firm aligned with The Economist, one of the most prestigious news magazines in the world, recently came out with an updated list of the top ten risks to the global economy. A Trump victory in November was tied for fifth on the list with the growing threat of Islamist terrorism. Now that takes some effort. Both a potential Trump presidency and the Islamist threat rated at 12 out of a possible 25.
The EIU was particularly alarmed at Trump’s “militaristic” statements on how he would deal with the Islamic State and other jihadists, such as his vows to go after the families of terrorists, shut down all Muslim immigration, and put boots on the ground to fight ISIS. It rightly points out that such tactics would be “a potent recruitment tool” for Islamist groups, and make them an even bigger threat “both within the region and beyond.” In typically understated British fashion, the EIU thinks Trump’s views on the Middle East are “exceptionally right-wing.”
The EIU cautioned that it’s not very likely that Trump would beat Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head matchup. However, it cautioned that things could change “in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn.” If Trump were to win, the EIU believes that the “innate hostility” of many Republicans, combined with what will almost certainly be “virulent Democratic opposition,” would cause significant gridlock.
The EIU’s global risk briefing manager, Robert Powell, told Politico that to his knowledge, an individual candidate has never been ranked in an EIU global risk list. He noted that if Trump were to invade Syria, it would be a colossal waste of money. Trump wants to pay for an invasion by taking Syria’s oil. However, Powell estimated that at current prices, taking Syrian oil would only net $500 million–not even a fraction of the estimated $25 billion it would cost to send troops there. And that’s before we even discuss the near-certainty that Syria would be as big a meat-grinder as Iraq.
Powell was also concerned that Trump would start a trade war with China. Trump has stated that one of his first acts as president will be to declare China a “currency manipulator”–a claim that has been shot down several times over from across the spectrum. Indeed, there are have been dozens of red flags in China’s economy of late, enough to raise fears of a massive economic slowdown. The EIU rated that prospect as the biggest threat to the global economy. If China is manipulating its currency, it’s doing a bad job of it. Powell also didn’t get how Trump could threaten a trade war with Beijing when so many of his products are made in China.
To American eyes, suggesting a Trump presidency is as big a threat as ISIS might sound like hyperbole at first glance. But you have to remember that the political climate in the UK, and indeed most of Europe, is considerably more civilized than ours. By all rights, Trump’s calls to kill the families of terrorists and ban Muslim immigration should have long since gotten him drummed out of the race. Calls for blatant violations of international law don’t play well in most of Europe. So it’s hard to blame Europeans for rolling their eyes at the prospect that someone can make such calls and still even think about being president.
It’s hard not to restate the irony in the EIU’s rankings. Trump’s stated plans for combating ISIS are now ranked as big a threat to the economy as ISIS. I repeat–that takes some effort.
