Two predictions made this election season, one from Western Illinois University predicting the general election, and Kansas predicting the Democratic nominee. Both said the same person would win the respective race each predicted – Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) but, in spite of the fact that each has been 100 percent accurate, WIU over 40-years, and Kansas over 50 years, much like the Republican debates and candidates in general, facts and records don’t seem to matter to those who say Sen. Sanders can’t win.
Maybe non-partisan polling averages and data from Real Clear Politics would help.
State Of The Race To Date
Sen. Sanders won New Hampshire, four Super Tuesday states, two Super Saturday states, and Maine that Sunday, March 6. Then, in a “surprise” win that’s left pollsters, political pundits, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) reeling and her campaign unsettled – the senator won Michigan on Tuesday, March 8.
#HistoryByHillary
"Hillary is unbeatable"haha
5 Reasons the Clinton-Sanders Race Is Much, Much Closer Than You Thinkhttps://t.co/hZ6WUP8dzV— Feet?ToTheFire? (@feetothefire) March 12, 2016
Sec. Clinton wiped the polls with Sen. Sanders, but those polls predicting Michigan would go to Sec. Clinton got things very, very wrong. In reality, Sen. Sanders wiped the floor with Sec. Clinton where it counted – at the voting booths in spite of the polls initially predicting Sec. Clinton winning by anywhere between 8 and 20 points.
Democratic primaries and caucuses continue on March 15, and at least two of those states are favored to go to Sen. Sanders. Furthermore, Ohio has a chance of going to Sen. Sanders in the same way Michigan did, according to Politico.
Sec. Clinton has led a strong race, but in many respects, this campaign mimics her 2008 campaign. And that’s not a good sign.
Crossover Appeal Head-To-Head
A head to head match-up between Sec. Clinton and Republican front runner Donald Trump and Sen. Sanders and Trump has Sen. Sanders outperforming Sec. Clinton, according to recent RCP Averages . Sen. Sanders averages positive 10 percent, while Sec. Clinton averages positive 6.3 percent.
Things get even better for Sen. Sanders when it comes to head-to-heads between him and the rest of the GOP, as he easily bests Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Senator Rafael Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and Governor John Kasich (R-Ohio).
- Against Sen. Rubio by positive 3.3 percent,
- Against Sen. Cruz by positive 9.7 percent, and
- Against Gov. Kasich by .5 percent.
On the other hand, Sec. Clinton ties Sen. Rubio and bests Sen. Cruz by 2 points in the March 3 – 6 polling, but it’s the only week she polled better than the respective contenders since at least February. RCP has her losing to each.
- Sen. Cruz sits at a positive .08 percent,
- Sen. Rubio sits at a positive 4 percent, and
- Gov. Kasich at a positive 7.4 percent.
Favorability Makes A Stronger Case
Sen. Sanders’ favorability rating is a net positive of 7 percent, and Sec. Clinton’s favorability rating is at a net negative of 13 percent, according to combined surveys from the Wall Street Journal and CBS News, via Vox.
To put the data into perspective, President Obama’s favorability rating was positive 17 percent in 2008 and President Clinton’s favorability rating was negative 11 percent in 1992.
The favorability polling combined with RCP Averages put Sen. Sanders in a much stronger position against a potential run against Republican front runner and likely GOP nominee Donald Trump, who sits at a net negative 39 – a record breaking negative number, according to Vox.
Sec. Clinton also bests Trump in favorability, but in polling, he’s bested her by at least two points at times over the last year, according to Real Clear Politics.
Something Else To Ponder…
Regardless of what anyone actually thinks about the email or Benghazi non-scandals, the following question must be addressed…
Do you actually see any Fox News-watching voter pulling the lever for Sec. Clinton in the general election? Regardless of what you personally believe happened, do you see any non-Tea Party aligned Republicans, moderate to right leaning Independents, or even center-right leaning Democrats, pulling the lever for Sec. Clinton if they care about the email non-scandal or Benghazi non-fiasco in any way? Be honest now.
That will not happen. These people would rather not vote than vote for Sec. Clinton if she gets the nomination. They would vote for Sen. Sanders, though. In fact, 25 percent of Vermont Republicans voted for Sen. Sanders in their primary, and 14 percent of Republicans in general would crossover to vote for Sen. Sanders in general.
The Clinton Campaign, Democratic Party insiders, and the DNC have yet to acknowledge that Sen. Sanders has the crossover appeal the Democratic Party’s chosen candidate needs to beat whomever the GOP chooses as their nominee in July. They even call him unelectable, but the data proves otherwise.
Featured Image: Screengrab Via YouTube.com.
