Hillary Actually Didn’t ‘Win’ Iowa By Preposterous Coin Flips

Since Monday’s cavalcade of confusion (the Iowa Caucuses), Bernie Sanders supporters as far as the eye can see (and as far as Facebook rants can status) have been crying foul over Hillary Clinton’s razor-thin first place finish. The sin appears to be a series of coin flips that Clinton won in several Iowa districts. I can totally understand why, considering coin flips are typically how first possessions are determined in football games, which is ever so slightly less important than determining the next President of the United States.

As per usual, there is far more to “Coin flip-gate” than social media pundits and journalists are letting on and it all begins with clearing up a certain misconception…

Hillary Clinton Didn’t “Win” The Iowa Caucuses.

If sports has taught me anything, it’s that “winning” something means walking away in absolute victory. In Iowa, there was no absolute victory for Hillary Clinton.

Hillary Clinton Iowa caucus coin flip
Screenshot from Google.

Clearly she only received 23 federal delegates. Bernie Sanders received 21. The only way Hillary Clinton would have “won” Iowa would be if Sanders had gone the way of Martin O’Malley.

Some of you guys may be saying, “But Robert, you buffoon, if you really learned anything from sports you’d know that 23 is higher than 21. On Sunday, when Carolina puts up 23 and Denver only scores 21, the Panthers will win the Super Bowl, genius! It’s general knowledge! Hillary freakin’ won Iowa!”

She would have if Monday’s shenanigans were all that went into Iowa’s procession of puerility.

Neither Hillary Nor Bernie Have “Won” Iowa… Yet.

This is where things get hairy, where insight into the operation of presidential determination by Iowan Democrats goes from simple head-scratching to Scanners-level mind-blowing. Much like “to rock a rhyme that’s right on time,” it’s tricky.

Iowa is a game of delegates — the long game, if you will. The events of Monday, Feb. 1, 2016, are not the entirety of Iowa’s 2016 yearbook. They are merely the first section, the one that’s several pages of crap preceding the senior photos.

The Iowa Democratic Party reported a grand total of 171,508 caucusgoers on Monday night. In keeping with Iowan tradition, no Democratic caucus recorded a raw vote for any candidate. It doesn’t work that way in Iowa.

There were 1,683 precinct caucuses on Monday night. Those 1,683 precinct caucuses divvied up 11,065 delegates to the candidates for the county conventions, which will take place on March 12. Consider those 11,065 county delegates a massive group of people waiting around in a lobby for concert tickets.

Only 1,406 of those 11,065 delegates (prospective concertgoers) will be attending the congressional district convention on April 30 and the state convention on June 18. Basically, only 1,406 people will get tickets to the two available concerts.

This is what’s causing all the damn confusion. The breakdown of those 11,065 delegates is not reported on caucus night. What is reported, however, are “state delegate equivalents,” which are estimates of how many of those 11,065 delegates will attend the congressional district and state conventions. The 1,406 “state delegate equivalents” are what Hillary Clinton’s 0.3 percent lead is based upon.

But more importantly, the results of Iowa’s Feb. 1 batshittery waltz do not mean that Hillary Clinton has emerged victorious in Iowa. On March 12, at the Iowa County Conventions, those 11,065 delegates have the option to “realign” themselves with another candidate. On April 30, state delegates will convene at the Iowa District Conventions. Delegates awarded to Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders do not necessarily have to abide by their designation in the county caucuses here either.

This “realignment” can also take place at the Iowa State Democratic Convention on June 18.

I know, it’s an overly-convoluted pain-in-the-ass system that makes about as much sense as… well, honestly, I suppose it actually doesn’t make a lick of sense.

So, Why Are We So Mad About Hillary Clinton Winning Coin Flips?

There are two reasons for why these coin flips are the only major takeaway from the Iowa Caucuses.

First, and if I may be blunt, it’s because it gives us a reason to be pissed, even if the anger is completely irrational. Apparently, we need that. It’s the only way social media survives. Rabble. Rabble. Rabble. Rabble. Rabble.

Even though it’s been reported that Hillary Clinton won six coin flips that ultimately decided her top-finish in the Iowa caucuses — which is a lucky streak one could take to Las Vegas, if it were the whole truth — the reality of the situation is that while Clinton won a few 50-50 odds, we really do not know exactly how many coin flips took place in Iowa on Monday night.

Over half of the Iowa Democratic caucuses used a new Microsoft reporting app, while the remaining caucuses kept to more “traditional” means of reporting caucus results, like calling the Iowa Democratic Party on the phone. Damn Luddites.

Among the precincts that used the Microsoft reporting app, exactly seven delegates were determined by coin flip. Keep in mind, those seven delegates are from the 11,065 county delegates that are metaphorically waiting around for concert tickets. When it comes to the precincts that did not use the app, there are no official records of how many coin flips occurred, only anecdotal information.

Of the seven coin flips (or “games of chance”) that were held in precincts that reported their results through the Microsoft app, six determined whether a county delegate went to Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders, while the other one determined whether a county delegate went to Sanders or Martin O’Malley, who surprisingly stood a chance in at least one Iowa precinct.

Of those six coin flips between Clinton and Sanders, Bernie won five of them. Sanders also won the toss up between himself and Martin O’Malley. The final result of the coin flips from precincts reporting with the Microsoft app was:

  • Bernie Sanders: 6
  • Hillary Clinton: 1
  • Martin O’Malley: LOLOLOLOLOLOL!

When it comes to the precincts that did not use the Microsoft app, we have no idea how many coin flips took place, much less how many Hillary Clinton won. All we have from those precincts is anecdotal evidence and occasionally some video.

Secondly, and what I think is the most influential factor in some of the outrage directed at the results of the Iowa Caucuses, we have no freakin’ idea how the caucuses work. From no emotion does outrage manifest more strongly than confusion. It’s the perfect flashpoint, prime real estate to build obelisks dedicated to just how much something infuriates us. We then focus on one detail (however factual) and use it to justify our vexation. All of us do it at some point and to some degree.

Ignorance is the choice backbone for conjectural fury. Observing any modern far-right conservative makes that abundantly clear.

At the end of the day, if Clinton won six coin flips, that only means she won six county delegates. County delegates do not equal state or federal delegates by a one-to-one correlation. No, there is a bunch of twisted voodoo math needed to determine how much of an impact six county delegates have to state and federal delegates.

If Hillary Clinton actually did win six coin flips during Monday’s Iowa Caucuses, they didn’t mean a damn thing.

Featured image by Frankieleon, available under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.

Robert could go on about how he was raised by honey badgers in the Texas Hill Country, or how he was elected to the Texas state legislature as a 19-year-old wunderkind, or how he won 219 consecutive games of Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots against Hugh Grant, but those would be lies. However, Robert does hail from Lewisville, Texas, having been transplanted from Fort Worth at a young age. Robert is a college student and focuses his studies on philosophical dilemmas involving morality, which he feels makes him very qualified to write about politicians. Reading the Bible turned Robert into an atheist, a combative disposition toward greed turned him into a humanist, and the fact he has not lost a game of Madden football in over a decade means you can call him "Zeus." If you would like to be his friend, you can send him a Facebook request or follow his ramblings on Twitter. For additional content that may not make it to Liberal America, Robert's internet tavern, The Zephyr Lounge, is always open