Raw Data Proves That GOP Candidates Are Lying About The Unemployment Rate

The GOP has been stupidly attacking U.S. unemployment numbers for years, beginning predictably when the unemployment rate began to fall slowly and steadily under the Obama administration. True to form, the current clown car passengers in the desperate race to the White House have used flawed reasoning (surprise!) and a false narrative to try to confuse their ignorant voters.

Donald Trump has even cited that unemployment could be as high as 42 percent. No one can seem to figure out where he came up with that number — we suspect it was from this wild theory — but he said:

“Every time it comes out I hear ‘5.3 percent unemployment!’ That is the biggest joke there is in this country.”

No, Donald, YOU are the biggest joke there is in this country. You’re uninformed and/or willfully ignorant.

Uninformed candidates like Trump are confusing the issue (or trying to confuse their supporters) because of the way unemployment is measured and reported. The “hidden unemployed” they’re talking about are “discouraged” workers — unemployed people who have given up looking for a job — and those who are “employed part time for economic reasons.”

But they’re not “hidden.” These numbers have been tracked since 1900.

These people aren’t reported in traditional reported numbers because they did not look for work in the four weeks preceding the BLS Current Population Survey, also known as the Household Survey, in which the BLS contacts 60,000 randomly chosen households to record the employment status of persons aged 16 and older in the household.

There are six levels of unemployment — U1 through U6.

U1 : Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2 : Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3 : Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
U4 : U3 numbers + “discouraged workers”, or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5 : U4 numbers + other “marginally attached workers”, or “loosely attached workers”, or those who “would like” and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6 : U5 numbers + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons.

You can go in depth with the methodology here.

Here is a chart that shows unemployment levels with current numbers. Click the image to see it in full-size, or view it here.

Our official unemployment rate is at 5.0 as of October 2015, the lowest since April 2008. Here is a handy dandy chart that quickly shows historical rates.

What the clown car passengers are talking about when they refer to the “real unemployment rate” is U6. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) defines U6 as:

“[…] total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force,” plus all marginally attached workers.

Here’s a chart for historical U6 data.

The problem is that the GOP candidates are saying that the unemployment numbers are being somehow manipulated and/or deliberately misleading. The official unemployment rate is being reported exactly as it has been for decades. Furthermore, U6 generally moves in tandem with U3.

Here is a visual from CNBC. Although the U6 is somewhat higher than traditional BLS rates (dayum…didn’t Pres. Clinton have some good numbers???), it’s trending the same as usual and October’s 9.8 percent rate is the first time since 2008 that it’s been below 10 percent. Thanks, Obama.

So this is in direct contradiction to what many of the goons on the GOP debate stage are saying.

It’s true that the official reported unemployment rate — U3 unemployment rate — doesn’t reflect the entire picture, but this is not new and it does not negate the recovering job statistics under the Obama administration. The trend is consistent and predictable. Here’s a visual that shows exactly how perfectly consistent it has been since 1995.

Bib Deitrick, CEO of Polaris Financial Partners, is quoted as saying:

“[…] the difference between reported unemployment and all unemployment – including those on the fringe of the workforce – has remained pretty constant since 1994.”

Here’s a breakdown of how Pres. Obama has outperformed Pres. George W. Bush in their first years in office.

• Obama in January 2009: U6 was sitting at a whopping 14.2 percent. It is 9.8 percent as of October 2015, four points lower.
• George W. Bush: U6 was at a respectable(ish) 7.3 percent in January of 2001, meaning U6 increased 6.9 percent under Bush.

Going back as far as 1950 with the chart below, it’s easy to see that the different measures move in tandem. Thank George W. Bush for that ugly historic spike. Yes, it happened in the first year of Pres. Obama’s presidency, but the snowball began during the last year of Bush’s. We aren’t shuffling blame. Just reporting facts. At any rate, we fixed it, didn’t we?

Data and stats are a b*tch, aren’t they? They prove the GOP wrong time after time after time.

Many experts believe that U6 is actually a more correct representation of unemployment and should be reported along with U3, but BLS reports U3 (and AGAIN, always has!). So that is what we to go on. I’d say that if the right wing nutjobs can’t even wrap their minds around one unemployment number, how can we possibly get them to understand two? Or (gasp) all six.

Erik Hare at Mint Press News suggests this:

“[…] there will always be people who don’t believe any of the official numbers, like Jack Welch or Donald Trump. As long as you cite your source, and perhaps explain why you have confidence in it, there is certainly room for different ideas of what “unemployment” is.”

Or as Paul Krugman explains:

“There is no “true” unemployment rate, just various indicators of the state of the labor market. Fortunately, these indicators pretty much move in tandem, so we’re not usually confused about whether the market is getting better or worse.”

Here is the tl;dr takeaway:

• Unemployment numbers have been reported the same way for decades, with U3 being the official unemployment rate; it’s not an Obama plot to mask the “real unemployment rate.”
• In the last 50 years, unemployment has gone down only once during a Republican administration (Reagan).
• In the last 50 years, unemployment has going up only once during a Democratic administration (Carter).
• Whether you use U3 or U6, Obama’s October 2015 rate is still the lowest since 2008. Thanks, Obama.

The GOP is lying when they say that unemployment has not improved under the Obama administration. Again, data and stats are a b*tch.

The GOP takes all of these numbers and all of this data and uses it to try to manipulate voters — and they’re very good at it. Their own candidates buy into the lies.

The best way to be informed is to dig into the data yourself, but the GOP counts on the fact that most of their willfully ignorant base will never bother to do that. Their sheeple will never read articles like this.

For more in-depth information on this fascinating subject — and it IS fascinating! — I’ve embedded a report below.

Unemployment 1930's vs Today