Is Our Fascination With That Old Jewish Guy Going To Mean Change For The US?

 

Bernie Sanders is easy to dismiss by political convention. He’s too old. He’s Jewish. He’s too liberal. He’s pro-marijuana legalization. He’s a self-proclaimed socialist. He’s from a small state. He served as an independent in the Senate in a country with a two party system. He looks like one of the old guys on the balcony of The Muppet Show. So obviously, he’s not a serious candidate, right?

Welcome to the new world of politics.

Bernie Sanders has tapped into the same frustration with the establishment that has been brewing across America for the last decade. We’ve seen recently how people are fed up with politics as usual. Incidents like Occupy Wall Street, protests in Ferguson, and the G20 climate protests demonstrate the public’s dissatisfaction with the way things are. While these sentiments are often ignored by conventional news sources and  pundits, the data is now showing that, despite all of the reasons to dismiss him, Bernie is a force to be taken seriously, even if that wasn’t always obvious.


Up until May, it was easy to chalk up Sanders’ candidacy as wishful thinking by his fellow socialists, even when he announced his formal Presidential candidacy.

The George Washington School of Political Management has been tracking the impact candidates have on the national landscape as part of their PEORIA (Public Echoes of Rhetoric in America) project. The following graphs illustrate the relative lack of media impact that the Sanders campaign initially made.

changing share of voice
Image courtesy of George Washington School of Political Management, available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.

When Sanders announced his Presidential candidacy, there was essentially no echo, not before, on the day of, or three days after announcing his Presidential candidacy. To be expected, right? He is a socialist, old Jewish man from a small state, who refuses SuperPAC money. Of course he’s insignificant. He’s the modern, liberal Lyndon LaRouche.

echo breakdown
Image courtesy of George Washington School of Political Management, available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.

In the above chart you can see that his official announcement was only mentioned 35 times on social media. In fact the data was so insignificant, that there couldn’t be a determination of the net sentiment of his announcement. Campaign flatline, no?

The mainstream media contributes to this flatline by emphasizing establishment candidates. So it’s understandable that Bernie Sanders, the voice of the common person, wouldn’t have much of a chance in political world rigged by big money.

But wait, don’t write the obituary for the Sanders campaign yet. After his underwhelming entry into the race, Bernie shifted gears to media-blitz mode. He went on the Sunday news shows and suddenly his campaign no longer resembled the corpse in the movies of a similar name.

After appearing on This Week and Face The Nation on successive weekends, Sanders’ campaign found a pulse. His populist message not only resonated with viewers, but he was viewed as viable and legitimate.

media weekends at bernie
Image courtesy of George Washington School of Political Management, available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.

Since then, he has raised over $26 million, putting him closely behind presumptive favorite, Hillary Clinton ($29 million). Perhaps more importantly, over 99.5% of his donors are eligible to donate again. He has taken no money from any SuperPAC, not only making the amount of money more impressive, but it illuminates how he is not beholden to large money interests. In fact, he was given $2700 (the maximum allowable individual contribution) by Martin Shkreli of Turning Pharmaceuticals and Sanders donated the money to the Whitman-Walker Health Clinic.

Bernie Sanders is still the underdog, though. The most recent polls still have Hillary Clinton out in front, but the gap is closing. More importantly to the Sanders supporters, the polls seem to have an establishment bias. When all of the more modern metrics were used, Bernie was considered the winner of the recent debate, particularly among focus groups,  yet conventional reporters published the exact opposite. Now that’s just the response to the debate, but it shows how perceptions of the candidates are driven.

In this next graph we can see that a month before the Democratic Presidential debate, Bernie Sanders Eclipsed Hillary Clinton in mentions on social media. What does that mean? Mostly it means that Sanders’ Presidential campaign began picking up steam leading into the debate.

peoria-report-sanders overcomes clinton in mentions
Image courtesy of George Washington School of Political Management, available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.


At this point none of us know for certain who will be the next President. In 2007 it was crazy to think Obama could overcome the Clinton machine and win the Presidency. Yet, here we are, 8 years later knowing how that turned out.

“I don’t believe that the men and women who defended American democracy fought to create a situation where billionaires own the political process,” Sanders has said throughout his campaign, a message that may be throwing a wrench into the establishment candidates’ plans.

Bernie Sanders’ message seems to be resonating with the public and his vision for America appears to be gaining traction.

Regardless of how the election turns out, we have all won something because of Sanders’ impact on this campaign.

 

Bernie Sanders Fights Back. Image by marcn via Flickr through Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial license.