I come bearing good news, my fellow Democrats, liberals, and progressives! And here it is: The Republicans will never win another national election. I repeat, NEVER. So if you live in fear of another member of the GOP occupying the White House, allow me to provide some much-needed comfort as we stand on the brink of 2016. Why am I so confident? Two main reasons:
Image Via AddictingInfo
1. The GOP Refuses to Adapt or Change
Most people, when faced with disappointment or loss in their lives, adapt and change to help improve their chances for a more beneficial outcome. But Republicans refuse to do this. As proof I offer the following two issues, neither of which the GOP will budge on:
Abortion
Let’s begin with abortion. Consider the current announced or yet-to-announce candidates the Republicans have. Has any of them said anything conciliatory on a woman’s right to choose? Nope. Even Rand Paul, the so-called Libertarian of the group, will not capitulate an inch on the issue. How many women want to hear a bunch of men tell them what they will be allowed to do with their bodies? Has any Republican even had the courage to say what Bill Clinton did when he answered the question with what I still consider to be the perfect response? Clinton said, “Abortion should be safe, legal, and rare.” That pretty much answers the question and leaves the opposition no place to wedge in an attack.
Same-Sex Marriage
As for same-sex marriage, need I remind you that Jeb Bush, who is supposed to be the “moderate,” in the race was one of the first to support Indiana Governor Mike Pence and the Hoosier State legislature’s attempt to pass a homophobic piece of legislation they had the nerve to claim was all about religious liberty? The GOP has therefore written off younger voters and anyone who doesn’t think lightning should strike a person simply because he or she loves a person of the same gender.
2. Democrats Start With 246 Electoral Votes, and You Only Need 270
GOP strategists must have nightmares about this fact: the Democratic nominee, based on the most recent demographic and electoral results, waltzes into any national election with the states needed to total 246 electoral votes. If you think you can make the electoral math work to the favor of the Republicans, go to this web site–www.270 towin.com–and knock yourself out trying to find a combination that comes close. Go ahead, I’ll wait for you.
Which states is the Democratic candidate virtually guaranteed to win? Here’s a list, along with the electoral votes they hold as their prize:
CA (55), NY (29), PA (20), IL (20), MI (16), NJ (14), WA (12), MA (11), MN (10), WI (10), MD (10), CT (7), OR (7), HI (4), ME (4), NH (4), RI (4), VT (3), DE (3), DC (3).
In case, like me, you don’t excel at math, allow me to assure you that the calculations–done by a friend of mine who is a CPA–reveal that 246 is 91 percent of 270. So a Democrat needs only find 24 more electoral votes to win the election. Considering that Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia (among others) are also trending to the Dems means that 270 is pretty much a cinch.
So the next time a Republican friend of yours tells you that the GOP will be competitive in 2016, pass this math lesson along to them and watch them slink away from the conversation.
Sleep soundly, fellow Democrats, liberals, and progressives, the future is bright indeed. As for the Republicans, well, maybe you can still manage to not be more irrelevant than you already are. But I seriously doubt it.
About Andrew Bradford
The voter votes its pocket book. If the Democratic Party ever starts to improve the economy, it will continue to do well.
Obama failed to fix the economy. His binge of over-regulation strangled all business starts and expansion. Anyone starting a business in the US is suicidal. I would not even ever hire an employee.
but paying the idiotic jerk of a ceo $14 million a year at the same time jobs are being outsourced to “save money” is perfectly a-okay, huh? Save america, execute a ceo today.
Buy the shares, become an owner. Then oppose the salary, as would be your right.
It’s laughable that you think that is a valid method of recourse. That is such a “Let them eat cake” statement if I’ve ever heard one. Do you honestly believe the average American has enough cash to buy a share of a major company large enough to sway policy? You espouse generalities such as “His binge of over-regulation strangled all business starts and expansion.” and you accept them as true, but you fail to provide even a whiff of evidence or even a stale anecdote to support it. It’s clear you’re out of touch with average people if you can make suggestions such as this, and statements like that with a completely straight face.
As if someone would want to work for somene as narrow minded as you
Don’t think the republicans aren’t aware of the electoral math, or that they won’t try to change it. Eliminating winner-take-all in some critical states would turn that math on its ear and make it all but impossible for Dems to win.
Well yeah, that’s how the GOP works. When you can’t win on merit, rig the game. Look at their gerrymandering of Congressional districts, they’ve set themselves up to keep the House for at least a generation by drawing lines that work to their benefit, lumping urban, Democratic voting areas in with vast rural areas, large enough to outnumber the city folk. My district, VA’s 5th, is a prime example. The City of Charlottesville (home to UVA) is lumped in with most of central southern VA. Charlottesville is extremely progressive and the rural areas are the exact opposite, but are home to a lot more people than Charlottesville when you add up all the counties in the district. It’s so bad that a Federal court has ordered the state legislature to redraw the lines in a fair way based on population density, not population politics.
Agreed (I’m in Richmond) but gerrymandering individual districts is not the only problem. The article points out the whole getting-to-270 issue and the advantage dems have there… which is true now, but as you note, the honorless republicans change the rules when they can’t win on talent and merit. That getting-to-270 thing is dependent on the winner-take-all nature of the electoral college in all but 2 states. While the republicans still have strongly gerrymandered districts and ownership of many state legislatures and governorships, they intend to eliminate that advantage in several key states, which throws out the electoral math advantage we currently have.
Regardless, the country is trending more liberal and more diverse, and those fundamental trends will overpower the partisan gimmicks and tricks, given time. But time is something in precious short supply for this country. There’s a revolution coming… the only question is whether we’ll have a theocracy or chaos on the other side.
I only have to look at the NC General Assembly and see how they change the rules/districts after they lose an election. Wake County voted for an all Democrats in the last County Commissioners race, getting rid of 4 Republicans including the nephew of Jesse Helms. These 4 were the sticking point on getting anything done for the parks and transportation in our county. So what did they, the NCGA GOP members do – changed the way County Commissioners will be elected next time. Instead of the entire county voting for all the commissioners – they will be now put into districts – which places several of the democrats into one district. But they didn’t stop with Wake County – they also have changed the way Greensboro will elect city council members – including reducing the number of members. Why? Because too many democrats represent Greensboro. They NCGA GOP are worse than any group of ‘Mean Girls’ on a HS Student Council, if they can’t win honestly, they change the rules so they can win by cheating.
You mean like Democrats screamed for abolishment of the Electoral College after GWBUSH’S 2000 Victory? Insisting on a POPULAR VOTE AND ACCUSING REPUBLICANS ON DENYING ONE MAN= ONE VOTE USING “UNFAIR OUTDATED ELECTORAL COLLEGE “?
Now these same folks LOVE the electoral college. Hypocrites.
Anyway,let’s get on with the one party Democrat dictatorship already.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
In the last four presidential elections, who won the popular vote?
2004 GW won by roughly 3 million votes over Kerry
The Constitution was not designed for parties, but we have them. We do not need or want a one party system, nicht wahr, tvarich?
When the GOP finally dies — and it will — there will be a new and saner 2nd party. Ever hear of the Whigs? It’s like that.
DO NOT GET COMPLACENT!!! Take nothing for granted.
I think it’s less about complacency and more about not becoming despondent. We get zero electoral votes if nobody actually goes out and VOTES. But, also, don’t despair. Don’t be fooled into your vote not mattering, or that they’re all the same. It can be won. So VOTE.
As a small business owner, I could’nt disagree more. Obama turned the economy around after the Bush rescission, and gave my business more tax breaks than anyone else. In case you haven’t noticed, the econonomy has improved drastically since Obama was elected.
The stock market is high because interest rates are zero. That is CPR on the still moribund economy. I would not start any business or even sell any property while Obama is in office. Once this waking nightmare is gone, the economy takes off as if shot from a cannon.
You aren’t invested in the stock market, are you? If you were you would know that your reason for a bull market are off the mark. If you choose not to sell property now, if you have any, you’re missing a great opportunity.
I have doubled my money in the market since Obama was elected. But I love my country more than I do money. My property made more money than I did since Obama was elected, but again, I would return the increases to save our nation from this America Hater, the Appeaser in Chief.
You said in your initial post that you would NOT sell property while Obama was in office. So which is it? Here’s a suggestion: Get off of Fox News. Avoid Jones and Drudge websites and other wing nut propaganda.
Nothing is holding you back from “returning” your increases now. Don’t put conditions on your values. Either you believe in something and you do it or you don’t. If you let politicians dictate you’re well being, you’re weaker than you think.
The stock market has more than *tripled* since Obama took office and the Democrat economic policies were implemented. That’s more than usual but not UNusual because for the last 50 years, the economy has always done better under Democrats. Clinton doubled the market during his time, GW Bush tanked it by two-thirds and Daddy Bush took it down more than 20%.
As for the market, we’ve yet to see the boom in tech stocks that is coming. Real estate, meanwhile? It’s still down and going lower if the economy goes down. No, real estate isn’t such a good deal. Whew.
The president, regardless of who that has been, has never controlled the economy. Sure the president influences it, but the economy is just too huge and there are so many factors involved.
Not to mention that we are not a monarchy. We have three branches of government and many many layers.
So the market upswing is a nightmare, and the catastrophe that Bush left is what you want to return to.
It’s no wonder people call you idiots.
If you actually look at the performance of the major stock indices, the stock market almost ALWAYS does better under Democrats. Look it is, it is true.
I am in the same situation. I think history will show that Obama is one of the best presidents this nation has ever had in the White House. The GOP wasted more time and money on vetting birth certificates and demanding school records (unheard of before Obama), and they have shown us so much overt racism and disconnectedness from American values that they are beyond redemption. We will NEVER again see a Republican president. G.W. Bush was the last one.
Do not assume that Hispanics will vote Democratic. Many still care about family, and do not want their adopted nation to be destroyed. They are far more patriotic than the tax sucking scum that authored this idiotic article.
How cute. You actually think hispanic voters would vote for the people that have shown nothing but hate for them? You think token hispanics like Rubio the bumbling fool and Cruz the delusional creepy guy can swing the Latino vote their way? Hell no. They’re a lot more intelligent than you give them credit for, they know who has their interests in mind and just isn’t the GOP. The other fallacy here is that you seem to think that Republicans give a crap about “family values.” How gullible do you have to be to buy that one? Republican politicians write laws that benefit their largest donors, they could give two shakes about family values. But the Republican politicians are smart enough to know that they can talk about abortion, gay marriage and religion and the brainless masses will eat it up and not have the intellectual wherewithal to check that the politicians are actually doing anything to further those agendas. I mean, let’s look at them, shall we? Gay marriage; Republicans have been talking themselves blue in the face about it. How is that fight going for them? They’re losing miserably. Abortion; nothing has changed since Roe V. Wade, so yet another failure of Brobdingnagian proportions. Family values; well, that’s never been their forte, what with all their marital infidelity and smoking meth with gay prostitutes and all.
I admire that you still have faith in the sinking ship that is the Republican Party, no matter how naive it may be.
Do not sleep soundly because the GOP hasn’t lost yet. Be active, be kind, be gracious, because that is how change is made.
This might be encouraging if it was based on something other than your faith in the GOP. The empirical reality tells us that the GOP cannot elect a President anymore. The numbers are against them. America is not reflected in the values of the GOP platform.
Actually I am just about as un-GOP as they get. The current GOP party is against everything that I believe in. When I said not to sleep soundly, I meant that those who oppose the GOP should not rest. Plenty of people out there still buy into the “party line”. Some will vote for republican because they have always voted republican and fail to see how their party has changed. I am very aware of this being a social liberal in Kansas. I still stand by my words of be active, be kind, be gracious because that is how change is made.
The problem is politics is local…..as has been proven the last 6 years, the P
residency doesn’t matter…if you control the House and the State governments, you run the country….
With Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Kentucky soon going Blue because of demographics, — they’re mostly only Red now n spots because of gerrymandering — state & local gov’t will follow the national trend. You can’t have one without the other.
We are so excited to have another Keynesian destroying our economy and another Ivy-league influenced theoretician decaying our standing on the World stage; making the United States a laughingstock in the eyes of our allies and enemies alike! Oh goodie!!!!!!
Never a sure thing. Democrats are couch potatoes. Only the smart ones vote
“pass this math lesson along to them and watch them slink away from the conversation.” This has happened exactly zero times ever
2 problems with this:
1) If you think repubs won’t cheat and/or flat out steal the election …. you’re delusional.
2) Other than the military, Presidential power is somewhat limited. We don’t have kings or queens here.
Congress and state governments are where most of the problems are.
Let’s see… The Republicans have alienated women, gays, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, the poor, immigrants, and white people who believe in science, education, fairness and equality. Who is left? The wealthy and the religious right. And there simply are not enough of those folks for them to win a national election. Not that the Democrats should take anything for granted. If we get cocky about it, we COULD lose. We need to fight each election like it is the most important election ever.
My district manager is a conservative and a Catholic. He told me yesterday that, if Trump is the candidate, he will vote for Hillary…hahahaha
That’s encouraging!
Then he is an idiot, Some of us don’t vote for crimnals
Good point. That is why the GOP can never elect another president.
Keep dreaming, most of the Republicans are beating Killary in the polls! But remember, Joe Stalin said ‘it doesn’t matter who the unwashed masses vote for, it’s who count the votes that matters’!
Talk about dreaming! LOL! The empirical facts debunk your statement. The Democrats outnumber the GOP by a significant number. It is a numerical impossibility for the GOP to win ever again. And demographically, the GOP is on a one-way street to oblivion. Not many new Republicans and many who stayed are leaving to become Independent like I did. I will never be a Democrat but I will never go back to the GOP.
WRON! The Democrap just appear to outnumber the Republicans because the Democraps all vote multiple times using multiple fraudulent ballots! Butin fact the Independents, like me, will decide the elections.
As a staunch tea party conservative, I have philosophical disagreements with everything liberal’s believe. Having said that, I do agree the electoral map is stacked against Republicans.
The map is not stacked against them. That is a tactic of the GOP called gerrymandering. The fact is that there are not that many of you left. Certainly not enough to elect a President. Not even remotely close. It is a numbers thing. The unpopular platform and ideology of today’s GOP has driven away the moderate conservative minorities like myself, and every non-white group. It has repulsed women of all backgrounds and ideologies, and it remains stubbornly racist and out of touch with the rest of America. That is why there are very few new Republicans being added in as the older ones die off.
It’s not even close to being over. The GOP maybe dumb but they never go down without a fight. No matter how useless it is for them and impossible it is for them to walk away victorious.
As a Gay Gun Owner I have no choice but to vote GOP. But it is not without my having to hold my nose. I think the Gun Rights issue is the only thing that is really holding most GOP voters in the party. I hear it all the time at the gun range. Most could care less that I am Gay or if I marry someone of the same sex. And even if they do object they feel it is really none of their business. Abortion issue’s are a big gray area with them. Late term and partial birth is where they start getting upset. But even there most are like me, it is wrong but not my business.
You are an idiot to vote for those who hate you. Better hold on to your guns because the Right Wing is coming for you. Happy hunting and aim for the head.
so you too …think gun control means no more guns? it means that people wanting to own a gun should be checked for Criminal records, or a history whereby the ownership of a fire arm represents a significant danger to the general public. it does not meant someone is coming to take your guns. Canada is a good example. you can get a gun, semi auto, concealed weapons permit etc…. but you get checked out in the interest of the safety for the general public. if you DO believe that (they will take your guns, or your 2nd ammendment rights) , then maybe you should make your GOP friends happy and ask them to pray away the gay…
We already have background checks to buy a gun. We also have FBI checks to get a CHL, which I have and had to pass a class and background check so I’m not sure what you mean. We already have the laws in place to stop the wrong people from getting guns. Let’s enforce them.
Fucking idiot.
As a gay American, you really should look at your choice in voting Republican. The party may love your guns, but they have nothing but contempt and hatred of your sexual orientation…and that trumps everything else you may have to offer. Progressives accept you for who you are and want you to the same rights as everyone else. Please remember that progressives have no desire to take your gun(s), just to regulate them a bit (recall that the constitution demands a “well-regulated militia”). You conservative peeps wish to take away your right to be who you are, whether you see this or not. Look around, listen and you will understand that they are nothing short of anti-gay, among many, MANY things.
Republicans don’t care about your sexual orientation. They just don’t want to be forced into the same closet that you just came out of. It should not be a crime to not support something that your religious beliefs tell you is wrong!
Yes, because states like IL, WI, and MI will clearly always vote for a Democrat… please ignore the presence of GOP governors in those states, it means nothing.
Yes abd they are SO popular, aren’t they?? Ask Kansas how they’re liking Brownback these days. The point is that a *demographic* shift is looming and every year that shift gets greater and greater. Only 2% of Blacks & 13% of Hispanics vote Republican for a total of about 10% and, pretty soon, there won’t be enough Whites of ANY political persuasion — let alone Republicans — to win an election; gerrymandering or not.
Republicans are walking White dead men.
Whites are not dying off. They will remain a biological majority. You deliberately forget millions of Hispanics are of Spaniard and other mediterranean European descent. Mediterranean subbranch of the white race is the LARGEST . They tend to be swarthy.
Examples among ;
Hispanics- Ricky Martin,Benicio del Toro,Victoria Justice,Jennifer Lopez,Selena Gomez,Selma Hayek,Penelope Cruz,Charlie Sheen.
Italian descent; Olivia Palermo,Joe Pesci, We all know enough Italians by “sight” yet their whiteness is no longer questioned,no matter how suspicious the dark and exotic his/her feartures.
Then you have the “KARDASHIANS”
KIM AND COURTNEY CAN EASILY PASS AS PUERTO RICANS, NOPE. THEY ARE EAST EUROPEAN OF ARMENIA HERITAGE.
Then you have THE ARAB PEOPLE. MANY OF WHOM SHOW CLEAR AFRICAN ADMIXTURE YET ARE FIRMLY ” WHITE” ( RECENTLY SOME MUSLIMS WANT NONWHITE STATUS TO GET AFFIRMATIVE ACTION )
This diverse tan – brownish variant of white ( sun caused/ they fade to ivory white in winter) is only recognized as white if straight from “Original people’s of Europe,Middle East,or North Africa”
Its ridiculous Argentina, Chile ,Uruguay and southern Brazil, home to almost 100 million North Europeans of German,English,Irish,Italian and Spaniard descent are regarded as ” nonwhite ” because they are hispanic.
When Pope Francis was chosen, The media went wild with euphoria over what they described as ” The first nonwhite,non western Pope”.
*
Argentina IS WESTERN!
ARGENTINA IS 95% WHITE AND HAS MORE BLONDES THAN MANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES.
* THE POPE IS ITALIAN- ARGENTINE!! (DUH )
THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT HISPANICS WILL IDENTIFY WITH WHITE MAINSTREAM OR BECOME LIKE JEWS, CLAIMING ” PROTECTED STATUS” IN PUBLIC WHILE BEING “WHITE & PROUD” AT HOME.
USA may be “majority nonwhite” if white becomes defined exclusively as Irish,German,English,Scott,French,Italian core of ” mainstream Americans.
However,history shows when the older core begins to fade,they EXPAND THEIR BOUNDARIES to include outsiders as ” white ethnic” (like the Jews,Poles,Irish,and Italians in the 1950s-70s.)
wow…you watch entirely too much tv…hahahaha
Not to mention that their base is shrinking to the point where those they are hating on — Blacks & Hispanics — will become the majority in 20 years. When you’ve spent the last 60 years spreading hate towards the majority in this country, it’s kinda hard to win an election. Even if they start embracing those who will soon become the majority — virtually impossible given their base — it will be too little too late. It will be a numerical impossibility for them to win by as early as the 5th national election; probably much sooner because there are Whites like me who’ll never vote for them.
The GOP is taking its last gasps as anything more than a minor regional political party.It is a beautiful thing
People in this country better hope that by voting for some people don’t come back to haunt you. Just b careful who you pick it there is another chance
You fvcking liberal progressives are really gonna hate the country you are left with…
Dream on, Jethro.
246 out of 538.. i wonder who has the other 302….
Apparently you aren’t aware of “swing states”.
On the contrary, I’m well aware of them. The thing is, a lot of swing states have quietly been showing signs of turning blue. Hence my question.
“law and biding citizens.” Cute.
Let me explain it.
Criminals……..
Dont…….
Care.
No doubt given this news the Democrats will be able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Do not underestimate the ability of the GOP to steal an election.
You’re desperate.
Y’all get a streak of 1 president and decide the Republicans will never win again?
There they go again….always predicting these terrible things that are coming down the pike, yet never seem to happen. Conservatives have been predicting the end of our country since Obama’s inauguration….we will become a Muslim nation, Sharia law will become the law of the land, all your guns will be taken, you will be sent to a FEMA reeduation camp, the White House will be painted purple. For the love of god, look around you. None of it has happened yet, but they keep saying its coming. Give it up. Promoting fear seems to be the only tactic left for the right.
If you look at the numbers, democrats basically start with 217 and republicans start with 191. Let’s also keep in mind that there are quite a number of people and businesses moving from blue states to red states.
Let’s also not forget the election of 1984. All states with the exception of Minnesota turned red.
I call the GOP the Party of the 3 R’s= Religious fanatics, Red necks, and Richies.
Of course he’s a single father, academic, journalist, with those views. Although he’s not a Christian if he’s leftist (oxymoron) and if he feels the argument for women’s rights trumps (pun intended) partial birth abortions… Delusional perhaps, but certainly not Christian. Liberals have and are ruining the fabric of this country with their politically correct agenda of appeasement, pacifism and fear of offending this or that special group. The result is a society of psychologically feeble, gender label sensitive, moron’s who claim they’re feminist, while practically defending ISIS, promoting policies which lead to advocating and defending broken home status, while enabling the down trodden (food stamps, 7th generation welfare recipients, & on & on), all while believing Socialism is the answer to corrupt aspects of capitalism, calling those who may believe in traditional marriage homophobes, or those who speak out on the obvious statistical immigration problems as racist, and even telling us that to defend life is to punish women for having sex. This is the result of a country who hasn’t had major challenges since WW2 & the Great Depression which produced brave individuals with a work ethic & sense of nationalism, but instead victim conscious fools who are ushering in an over prescribed, complacent society that China is consuming, while distracting ourselves with Kaitlyn Jenner ‘science projects’ to avoid facing our serious problems. You Liberally Biased Media Atheistic Brainwashed Morons. You’re a disgrace and the reason our nation is on the decline.
You’re right. Relive need to ditch abortion and same-sex issue and focus on national security, immigration and economy b
Also dems import voters from Mexico Central America and Middle East to get more voters. Republican can’t import Eastern Europeans as they will be seen as racist.
I’m a classical liberal and our current immigration system is fucked up. We use to manage immigration and have quotas.
FINALLY, somebody says it out loud and make it a headline article. This article is absolutely, thoroughly 100% correct. The GOP will never EVER win another National election. NEVER. They are done for good. For a few more years, they will still be able to elect governors and senators, and they will be able to get plenty of media time and exposure. But the White House is no longer an option for Republicans.
Those who do not see why this is true are right wing evangelicals (a small voting minority) and Republican conservatives (a national voting minority). The reasons are many, Besides the two issues mention in this piece, abortion and same -sex marriage, there is the very loud and obvious RACISM issue and MISOGYNY problem. There is the disturbing and annoying RELIGION problem too. There is the almost total lack of diversity in the GOP. Yes, they have Ben Carson, but he is a confused, delusional creature who does not realize that the majority of those in his camp would rather he be bringing them drinks and parking their cars than rubbing elbows with him.
America is no longer in a demographic chokehold. The coalition of minorities and women is simply more powerful and more sensible than the backwards values of the GOP. The past two elections have proven that rather succinctly. And the sad part is that the GOP seems genuinely confused at this turnabout. They seem to think this is just a “phase” that will be overcome later. They do not seem to see what has happened to their party. There are not many new Republicans being added to the GOP. Their unattractive policies and the issues I mentioned above (and those mentioned by this article) are nails in the coffin. And we are way past nailing the coffin. We have dug the grave already and services should be planned. The 2012 elections should be seen as a wake for the GOP. From now on, they are no longer relevant in presidential elections.
Just like the communist murderous animals of 20th century Eastern Europe, the destruction of a country and its people will be your fault. Fortunately, you will be doing it to a country that doesn’t back down so easily. Expect problems if you commies continue to get your way. This time, we’re well prepared.