PoliticsUSA.com published a poll today showing ?Secretary Clinton far ahead of Senator Warren. Is this a sign that the “Clinton Machine” is afraid of ?yet another “freshman Senator” taking the nomination? ?The PoliticsUSA?headline?was surprising to many of us: “Hillary Clinton Leads Elizabeth Warren 48%-6% In New Poll Of Democrats”! It seemed that in spite of all the talk from MoveOn.org to “Draft Warren” that the party has spoken and Secretary Clinton is destined to be the nominee. Or is she?
The problem arises when you actually look at the “poll“. It appears to be, well, to use a scientific term, bogus.
By the fact sheet the pollsters released, if I was the Clinton campaign (if she WAS running, wink wink) I would have this poll pulled before it embarrasses them or makes them seem scared of Senator Warren.
Let’s look at the surveys numbers. It’s a survey because of the shoddy way the polling was done. There is a great explanation about polling here.
By the numbers:
- The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from December 10 to 14, 2014 with
1,008 adults in the United States - This release is based on a sample of 386 registered voters who identify
themselves as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party. - This sample has a margin of error of + 5.0
percent.
So, where to begin, with this embarrassment of riches? The authors don’t state if they called cell phones or only land lines. If they called land lines they were speaking to older people who may skew more conservative than younger Democratic voters. They only spoke with a thousand people and then used only “a sample” of 386 registered voters. They say the “poll” (which it is not it is a survey) has a margin of error of five percent. ?Sigh. It makes ones head hurt to have so much stupid shoveled at it all at once! ?What they are saying is that of the one third of people they used to “build” these results forty-eight percent of that one third (16%) want us to crown Hillary Clinton as our nominee! Not exactly a landslide as promised.
But wait! There’s more! Even the questions were shoddy.
Question 1:
? ? ?”I know the 2016 election is far away, but who would you like to see as the Democratic
nominee for president?”
And then the person asking the questions waited for an answer. These were the answers they got, that they reported:
Hillary Clinton 48%
Elizabeth Warren 6%
Joe Biden 2%
Bernie Sanders 2%
Andrew Cuomo 1%
Other 1%
No one, do not want
Democrat as president 7%
Undecided 32%
To be fair if this was truly a “National Poll” as advertised Governor Cuomo probably would not poll even 1%! I’m not suggesting that the “pollsters” hand selected the respondents to fit the results but it seems they did. Especially when considering that 81.3 % of MoveOn members have asked Senator Warren to run! Surprisingly THIS poll supporting Mrs. Clinton came out the SAME DAY MoveOn announced they would ask Senator Warren to run! What a coincidence!
So the “pollsters” hand selected their respondents then chose the result. It gets worse.
Question 2:
? ? ?”I’m going to read you a few names of people who might run for president in 2016. Please
tell me if your general impression of each is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t really
have an opinion.”
Here were the names they suggested:
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 82%/ 11%/ 7%
Vice President Joe Biden 46% /32% /22%
Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb 11% /14%/ 75%
Maryland Governor Martin O?Malley 10% /13% /77%
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 22% /13% /65%
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo 30%/ 22%/ 48%
West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin 9% /14% /77%
Notice anything odd? Yes that is correct! The person who scored second by even their flawed method wasn’t even asked about when measuring favorability/unfavorability! Hey, like my Drill Sergeant in the Army used to say, “If you aren’t cheating you aren’t trying!” We are supposed to believe that sixty-five percent of Democratic voters have “No opinion” on Bernie Sanders! None! Pardon me while I hurl ridicule at the silliness of your imaginary “quiz” masquerading as a poll!
Only two more questions to laugh at before we conclude:
Question 3:
? ? ” Do you think it would be better if the Democrats got behind Hillary Clinton early in the
nominating process or would it be better if there was an active primary challenge?”
Answer?
Better if Dems got behind Hillary 43%
Better if active primary challenge 48%
(VOL) Don’t know 9%
So even though 48% think Hillary is the way to go, 52% think she shouldn’t be crowned until some token “opposition” gets soundly defeated by her in the primaries! This sort of thinking makes the voting rationale in Banana Republics look wise.
Final question.
Question 4:
? ? ?”Looking back to the 2008 election, do you think things would have been better, worse, or
about the same if Hillary Clinton had won that election rather than Barack Obama?”
And the answer is?
Better 28%
Worse 7%
About the same 59%
(VOL) Don’t know 6%
So 87% basically think Clinton and Obama would, more or less, be the same Administration.
Politics USA broke the cardinal rules of reporting on polling:
- Avoid reporting breakdown results?from very small samples as they are?unreliable
- The story should include the name of?the company which conducted the?poll, and the client the poll was done?for, and the dates it was done.
- Only use the term ?poll? for scientific?polls done in accordance with market?research industry approved guidelines,?and use ?survey? for self-selecting?surveys such as text or website?surveys.
386 voters is not a “national poll”. The story and the “polling company” never reveal WHO PAID?Monmouth University Polling Institute to do this survey. ?And finally this isn’t a poll it is a survey so to advertise it as such when it is obviously not is bizarre.
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