A poll released by Public Policy Polling (PPP) today shows Mitch McConnell is in trouble in his bid for re-election in 2014. The Senate Majority leader trails Democrat Alison Grimes by a 45-43 margin. Those numbers are a leading indicator of the self-inflicted wounds the GOP has brought upon itself as Kentucky went 61-38 for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama in 2012. The shutdown backfired on Republicans as 60 percent of the state’s voters opposed shutting down the federal government to block funding of Obamacare.
Male voters give McConnell a 49-39 edge, but female voters overwhelmingly prefer Grimes by a 51-38 margin. Even nearly one in five Republicans is so disillusioned with McConnell that they are willing to vote for Grimes. McConnell pulls 72 percent to Grimes? 18 percent with GOP voters in the state. Grimes has predictably large leads with Black and Latino voters but even among white voters she manages a virtual tie trailing just 45-44.
Compounding Mitch McConnell’s woes, Alison Grimes has also outraised him in campaign contributions since she entered the race. Although McConnell still has more cash on hand, Grimes has raised 2.5 million dollars since entering the race in July, compared to the 2.3 million McConnell has raised in the same time frame. Over 13,000 individual donors have contributed to Grimes? campaign. McConnell has recorded fewer than 6000 individual donors.
McConnell also must fight off a Tea Party fueled challenge from Louisville Businessman Matt Bevin in the Republican Party primary. Bevin is popular with right wing activists and Sarah Palin is expected to support his candidacy. First elected in 1984, Mitch McConnell is the longest serving US Senator in Kentucky history. However, his Senate career is in jeopardy of ending abruptly in 2014, and the government shutdown and debt crisis struggle that he helped engineer could turn out to have been a politically fatal gambit. The Bluegrass State which Obama lost by a staggering 23 points in 2012, is turning into a toss up state in the 2014 Senate contest. Democrats can take out Mitch McConnell in November 2014 and turn his Senate seat blue.
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