Public Policy Polling has finished their latest Mississippi Senate race poll, and it was released Nov 19. The poll queried 502 Mississippi voters and an oversample of 422 Republican primary voters, and examines both overall state opinion and Republican voters for a ?primary assessment.
The Senate race is still undefined as aging incumbent Republican Senator Thad Cochran hasn’t announced whether he will run for re-election. The most vocal new entry into the race is State Senator and former Republican radio show host Chris McDaniel, who is currently working the state in his Constitution-painted state-of-the-art tour bus. Chris has the Tea Party’s endorsement and the rhetoric among supporters is that he would improve on Cochran’s performance by not cooperating with anything “up there” in Washington.
McDaniel’s early entry into the race has met some national interest, and a Mother Jones article that cited his speaking for a confederate group’s southern style costume ball was only partially correct. It seems McDaniel did speak for the group but a couple of months before the alleged event. His alibi for not being at the ball was attending an American Legislative Exchange Council meeting out of state, and so he claims he could not have spoken at the ball, despite being advertised for it. ALEC is the notorious industrial legislation mill that has been central to pushing Republican and industry agendas nationwide including a list of culture war issues. McDaniel’s detractors point out neither the appearance nor the alibi are confidence-inspiring.
Except for McDaniel, most of the potential candidates give a nod to Senator Cochran, and respect his popularity across the state. The poll indicated that among Republicans, Cochran has a 45/42 approval rating but as late as 2011 enjoyed a 70% approval from them. Among Democrats he enjoys a 44/40 approval. His voting record is consistently hard-nosed Republican, but the most extreme conservatives view the existing incumbents as RINOs , and not aggressive enough at Tea Party strategies in Washington.
PPP claims that based on opinions today, Cochran would defeat anyone who challenged him in a general election among all state voters. Cochran would shut out the 3 possible Democratic contenders, though State Attorney General Jim Hood, by a margin of 45/43 and 16% undecided, is within the margin of error for the poll. Democrat Travis Childers, showing rejection by 50/33, or Democratic Former Governor Musgrove by 50/37, do not appear to be serious contenders.
If Cochran were to retire and the field opens up in the Republican primary, McDaniel is ahead of that pack but only with 25% of Republican voters. Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann is a close second at 23%, but that is within the margin of error of the study. At 58/19, Hosemann has much higher approval ratings and name recognition than McDaniels, at 33/17. Among Republican voters polled, only 50% even recognized who Chris McDaniel was despite his efforts at prayer legislation and conservative causes in the state senate. Hosemann would be the obvious more moderate Republican candidate choice in the case of a Cochran retirement, according to the poll.
PPP also speculates that a McDaniel/Tea Party win in the GOP primary might give Democrat Hood the extra lift he needs to actually win the Senate seat for a Democrat, since Hood already runs a close race with the more moderate and popular incumbent. Mississippi has a long modern history of denying its left half any representation in the US Senate, and has a long and colorful history of trying to always offer less representation for minorities than their percentage of the population. A McDaniel candidacy is another attempt by the most conservative to continue the tradition of representing Mississippi only from the far right.
A few other points are confirmed by the poll.
- Cochran’s approval is widespread, the only group that is dissatisfied with him are those who describe themselves as “very conservative”. ?Similarly, in a contest between Cochran and McDaniel, only the most conservative favor McDaniel, but his name recognition is still low.
- McDaniel’s support among Republican women is slightly lower than among Republican men.
- Among Republicans in Mississippi, men are more likely than women, to feel they want a more conservative candidate.
- Results by age group among Republicans indicate that the youngest and the oldest favor McDaniel’s Tea Party appeal, but there is little variation in opinion among Republicans in Mississippi, regardless of age.
This is a Tea Party battle that could backfire. McDaniels is by far the favorite candidate of the most extreme conservatives whose rhetoric and interpersonal demeanor sound like they are still waiting for another Battle of Bull Run. In trying to put a Mississippi stamp on the nation, the reactionary conservatives might make a serious tactical error and end up giving half the state’s Senate clout to the 40+% of Mississippians who are not used to getting recognized. The preferred outcome is the opposite — to eliminate moderates from the ranks of Mississippi senators.
Through a McDaniel candidacy, state conservatives hope to push the state — and Washington –over to the far Mississippi right. One just has to wonder if they are victorious, who they would get to pay the bills, since the state gets a windfall of $2.50 back for every tax dollar the citizens pay in, and the economy survives on it.
Edited and published by CB
