A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP) from October 2nd through October 4th in two dozen Republican held House districts reveals that “generic Democrat” leads the incumbent Republican in 17 of the 24 swing districts polled. In addition, 16 of those 17 Republicans have negative approval ratings in their districts, meaning more voters disapprove of the job they are doing in Congress than approve of their performance. The lone exception is New York’s Chris Gibson who is barely above water at 40 to 36 percent approval.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Michigan’s Kerry Bentovolio is nearly universally loathed by his constituents, sporting a pitiful 28 percent approval rating with 55 percent of his constituents disapproving of his performance in Congress. While “generic Democrat” is not an actual candidate, these polls at least give some insight as to which members of the GOP House caucus are most vulnerable. The 17 Republicans who trail “generic Democrat” are listed below from the most at risk, based on the recent poll, to the least at risk:
1. Dan Benishek (MI-01) {2012 Obama percentage in his district 45.3}
Benishek trails a generic Democrat by a whopping 56-35 margin, the worst performance of all the Republican incumbents polled. He represents Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and first rode into Congress during the Tea Party wave of 2010. However, as this poll suggests his days may very well be numbered. Compounding his misery, Benishek has to face a formidable challenge from Democrat Jerry Cannon, an ex-sheriff and Vietnam Veteran.
2. Kerry Bentovolio (MI-11) {Obama 46.9%}
Bentivolio trails 53-37 and sports a miserable 28 percent approval rating. “Krazy Kerry” as he is often called back home is best known for being an eccentric reindeer rancher before he entered Congress in 2012 and for resigning as a high school teacher over allegations that he banged on desks violently and yelled at students.
3. Gary Miller (CA-31) {Obama 57.2%}
Miller is critically endangered for the mere fact that he represents a district that went 57 percent for Barack Obama in 2012. He is so nervous about reelection that when most of his House colleagues voted to cut food stamps, he did not for fear of appearing mean-spirited to his constituents. However, Miller is usually a conservative vote and for that reason he may be in trouble, as he trails a generic Democrat 49-38. He already faces multiple Democratic opponents including Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar and Former Congressman Joe Baca.
4. Mike Coffman (CO-06) {Obama 51.6%}
A Tea Party, an NRA backed gun supporter and a “birther”, Representative Coffman is a poor fit for this district that includes both the site of the Aurora Theater Massacre and the Columbine killings. He has drawn a strong opponent in Democrat Andrew Romanoff, and this race promises to be one of the nastiest and most expensive House races in the nation in 2014. Trailing 49-41 in this district that went narrowly for Obama in 2012, Coffman looks to be in serious jeopardy of being voted out.
5. Tim Walberg (MI-09) {Obama 47.9%}
Like Benishek and Bentovolio, Walberg is another Michigan GOP Congressman that has worn out his welcome with his constituents. Trailing generic Democrat 49-41, he will have his hands full fending off a challenge from Pam Byrnes.
6. Bill Young (FL-13) {Obama 50.1}
Young has been elected to Congress 22 times now. He first entered the House in 1970. Could he really be beatable? The PPP survey says yes. He trails a Democrat 48-43. Perhaps he should retire rather than take his chances on winning a 23rd term.
7. Steve King (IA-04) {Obama 45.3}
King’s special brand of racism and xenophobia has always been a bit of an embarrassment even to the shameless GOP leadership. One of his most recent outbursts was his attack on DREAMers (immigrant children) when he stated “For everyone who’s a valedictorian, there’s another 100 out there that weigh 130 pounds and they’ve got calves the size of cantaloupes because they’re hauling 75 pounds of marijuana across the desert.” Finally, even his own district seems to be tiring of him as he trails a hypothetical Democrat 49-45. King’s paranoia about Latino immigrants seems out of place in a district that is less than 6 percent Hispanic, but perhaps the race will be so close that Latino voters will poetically provide Democrat Jim Mowrer with his margin of victory over King in 2014.
8. Steve Southerland (FL-02) {Obama 46.5}
The Florida panhandle is often regarded as an inhospitable place for liberal candidates, but Democrat Al Lawson gave Southerland a scare in 2012, losing just 53-47%. This time he is likely to face an even stiffer challenge from Attorney Gwen Graham, daughter of former Senator Bob Graham.
9. Sean Duffy (WI-07) {Obama 47.8}
Duffy is the Congressman who claims he “struggles” on his 174,000 annual congressional salary. He first rode into office along with a lot of other Tea Party flotsam in 2010. Since he has already admitted that he struggles to make ends meat on 174K a year, voters should feel free to fire him so he can find a real job that pays. They appear poised to do so as Duffy trails a generic Democrat 48-45.
10. Andy Barr (KY-06) {Obama 42.2}
Of all the embattled Republicans on the list, Barr is in the reddest district. His Kentucky district delivered a 56-42 margin to Mitt Romney, but many voted for Democrats down ballot as Barr only scraped by with a 51-47 win over Democrat Ben Chandler.
11. Tom Latham (IA-03) {Obama 51.4}
This district should be good for Democrats, but Latham has always proven himself a capable politician and he will again prove tough to dislodge. However, the Tea Party antics in the House put this usually popular lawmakers approval ratings underwater, and perhaps at long last the R by his name may cause him to be swept away in the anti-Tea Party undertow that is brewing in Iowa.
12. Pat Meehan (PA-07) {Obama 48.5}
Meehan has yet to draw a major Democratic opponent, but with a poll showing him trailing a generic Democrat 43-40, somebody should take note. This is traditionally a 50/50 area, so Democrats need to field a candidate and get to work.
13. Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08) {Obama 49.3}
Fitzpatrick, Pat Meehan’s suburban Philly neighbor has drawn at least two Democratic opponents already in Kevin Strauss and Shaugnessy Naughton. He also trails by a slim margin (46-44) as moderate voters have tired of the Tea Party in Pennsylvania.
14. Daniel Webster (Fl-10) {Obama 45.7}
This fiercely conservative lawmaker is a warrior in the war on women. He has proposed federal legislation requiring women to undergo and view an ultrasound before they can have an abortion. He has yet to draw a named opponent, but the PPP poll finds him trailing 46-45, so Democrats should seize the opportunity to find a strong challenger and send Webster packing.
15. Chris Gibson (NY-15) {Obama 52.1}
Gibson represents a blue-tinged district, which is undoubtedly losing patience with the direction of the right-wing Republican House. He trails to a generic Democrat 44-43.
16. Rodney Davis (IL-13) {Obama 48.6}
Davis has already drawn a trio of Democrats vying to take his seat. He won by just 1002 votes in 2012 in this swingiest of swing districts.
17. David Joyce (OH-14) {Obama 47.6}
With Joyce trailing a generic Democrat 44-43, this race is shaping up to be a toss up.
The seventeen districts above all are in a position to vote out Republican incumbents and replace them with Democrats. If every Democratic held seat stayed in Democratic hands and seventeen Republican held seats flipped, Democrats would regain control of the US House. While not all of the races mentioned will probably change hands, they represent a list of viable targets for Democrats to pursue. Democrats have other targets where Republicans currently are tied or have slim leads as well as several districts that are potentially competitive which were not polled. The districts above and the Congressmen(and yes they are all men) who represent them should be considered the low hanging fruit that Democrats can pluck to regain a House majority and put the government back to work for the American people. The 2014 election is just over a year away. Its time to get to work and clean house.
Edited and published by CB
