An amazing map by Mike Nudelman for Business Insider — based on data gathered by Latino Decisions — shows why Republicans should be afraid. Very afraid. The Democrats only need to win 17 seats to take back the House. 44 Republicans represent districts with Latino populations whose increasing numbers could influence whether or not they get re-elected. And Latinos are?not happy about their votes on immigration reform and other legislation.
“Thank you for being you, Republicans. You have radicalized hundreds of thousands of us, and no matter what you do … We are coming for you.”
— Paraphrased from activist Sarah Slamen’s brilliant screed on the Texas Senate floor.
Saturday July 13th proved a grim day for liberals, indeed,?as conservatives handed us two resounding defeats. First the Texas GOP rammed through their anti-choice legislation, despite heroic efforts from Wendy Davis,?Sarah Slamen, and thousands of women from all over the state. Then, a Florida jury let George “Stand Your Ground” Zimmerman walk free.?Finally, to add insult to injury, a woman referred to as?Juror B37 told reporters she believes Martin “threw the first punch … and that Zimmerman probably feared for his life” before shooting the unarmed 17-year-old boy dead?with his gun … and she plans on writing a book about the trial. Since they apparently get do whatever they want, and get away with it, why would anyone think Republicans should be afraid?
Conservatives?have been ticking off blacks and women for decades now, but rarely both at once (despite the considerable overlap amongst the two groups),?or with such a spectacular one-two punch. ?Now?we folks on the left?lust for revenge, and can’t wait?to let loose a can o’ whuppass on these bums in 2014. After all, we turned out in force to re-elect Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Then we look at our (mostly) pasty-hued Teabaggers nestled?smug snug?in their safely gerrymandered seats and throw our hands up in despair. Their jobs — at the local, state, and national levels?– seem way safer than they should be from blacks, women, gays, and the other Democratic-leaning contingencies who oppose them.
Oops, those jerks forgot about the Latinos
But wait. The GOP totally forgot about the Latinos … despite?how thoroughly they dissed and dismissed?them a few days prior. The leadership’s starting to realize that Republicans should be afraid, but their Tea Party-influenced congresspeople have no clue. Unfortunately for them, Latinos are now the third lethal leg on the wobbling stool of the modern Republican party’s impending demise. When the Senate passed its sweeping immigration reform bill at the end of June, a bright flame of hope flickered amongst our Latinos and their families, friends?and neighbors,?only to be snuffed out?on July 11th?by a recalcitrant, GOP-led House. The bill would have been the first step towards?giving legal status to an estimated 11 million undocumented residents — many of whom are children and teenagers who’ve lived here since early childhood and have known no other home.?When Dad, Mom, or — God forbid, both — get deported, families are torn asunder and the children often wind up in foster care. This latest disappointment shows that — for all?of conservatives’?yammering about “family values” — they don’t really care about what’s good for families at all.
As Addicting Info‘s Shannon Arguetta movingly writes in her article, “House Republicans Pander To Their Deeply Racist Base And Refuse To Take Up Immigration Reform:
“There are millions and millions of American families that are being torn apart by deportations of loved ones. Thousands of kids that have been turned into orphans. People like me, whose spouse is an immigrant, that stay awake night after night hoping our government will wake up and realize the importance of the matter. We had a little bit of hope and now the idiot Republicans in the House have dashed those hopes.”
The surprising map that shows why Republicans should be afraid
So how dashed should our hopes really be? Is immigration reform really dead? Brett Logiurato from Business Insider weighs in with a resounding “NO,” and we’d best take notice, because he’s lugging around some pretty heavy data. The data comes from Latino Decisions, a polling firm that has created an elaborate interactive map to show how the Latino vote will influence politics and future elections. Logiurato analyzed this data to see how many Republicans might be nudged into the pro-immigration reform column — or ousted in 2014 — by the increasing Latino populations in their districts. Business Insider‘s Mike Nudelman then distilled all this information into the simple but revealing?map shown below:
If you’re a data geek and want to play with the interactive map, then go for it. If all you care about is whether Democrats can overthrow the Republicans in 2014, feast your eyes on the above infographic. Republicans definitely should be afraid, because the future looks surprisingly rosy for those of us who care about immigration reform and hope to win back the House:
- 44 Republicans represent districts with Latino populations whose numbers could influence whether or not they are re-elected.
- Latino Decisions characterizes the 14 most vulnerable seats as “Tier 1″(red dots) districts that could easily flip from Republican to Democratic in 2014.
- 10 more districts fall into the “Tier 2” (green dots) category — which is only considered slightly less likely to turn Democratic in 2014.
- All 24 of the districts represented in the map above as red and green dots are up for grabs.
- The remaining 20 congresspeople in “Tier 3” (blue dots) districts are probably safe for now (Mitt Romney won by double-digits), but ongoing demographics will not work in their favor.
- 24 GOP representatives occupy highly vulnerable Tier 1 and Tier 2 seats, and the Democrats only need to win 17 of these spots to regain their majority vote in the House of Representatives.
- The 44 congresspeople in all three tiers may come under enough pressure that they might have to vote for some sort of immigration reform.
Latino Decisions made these predictions based on various factors, including the percentage of Latinos in these districts who voted for Barack Obama in 2012, and the number of Latino youngsters expected to reach voting age between now and November 2014. In addition, Latino Decisions Analyst David F. Damore Ph.D. offers a few more salient points to give us hope. Apparently, Republican voters also support immigration reform, the Latino population’s growing nation-wide, and Republicans will need to pay attention or lose their seats:
First, polling suggests that immigration reform is not an animating issue for most Republican primary voters and most Republican voters generally support the same reforms as Latinos. Second, Latino population growth is occurring everywhere, including in GOP House districts. Third, developing expectations about members? behavior in terms of average district characteristics obscures individual contexts where Republican incumbents are vulnerable and Latinos may be influential. So while voting age Latinos may have small presences in most Republican held districts, there are a significant number of districts where Latinos are positioned to affect outcomes in 2014 and by extension, partisan control of the House of Representatives.
Photo collage/illustration for why Republicans should be afraid despite their recent victories in Florida and Texas by Elisabeth Parker.
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Edited and published by CB
