Will Sarah Palin run in the 2016 presidential election? Maybe…but she doesn’t stand a chance of winning. Here’s why.
Believe it or not, many conservatives relish that idea, especially in light of Hillary Clinton’s near presumptive status as the first female presidential nominee.
To some cultural conservatives, Palin is an icon of true-believership, hickory-like in her unbending adherence to traditional norms. For others, with her blue-collar image, Iraq veteran son, good looks and folksy charm, Palin has too much going for herself to be overlooked. Conservative Charlotte Allen, writing in The Los Angeles Times following Romney’s defeat, argues that Palin would be highly electable in 2016, and in fact calls her, “the new Ronald Reagan: charming, affable and unwilling to back down if she’s right.” In part, Allen reasons that Palin’s credentials as the mother of daughters, including a single mother, not to mention as a woman herself, are immunization enough against any attempt to portray her as party to a “war on women.”
So what are the odds we’ll be burdened with Palin as a major contender, much less a successful one? Not very high.
Palin has had her moment, and in the consciousness of Americans, it wasn’t all that pretty. At the peak of her popularity, right after the Republican convention of 2008, she was viewed favorably by 59 percent of likely voters. By election day, confidence in her had plummeted nationwide, contributing to the loss of her ticket. Now, according to the respected Public Policy Poling, Sarah has lost so much luster that a mere 16 percent of her fellow Alaskans believe she should run for president in 2016. A hypothetical matchup with Hillary Clinton for president in 2016 shows Palin getting walloped by Clinton, 53 to 37 percent in Palin’s home state.
Palin is clearly a figure who has had her run. For better or for worse, I don’t believe we are likely to have Sarah Palin kick around in 2016 presidential election, or beyond.
About the author:
A newspaperman for years, Tom T. later moved into magazine writing and editing. As director of the PR unit for a non-profit consortium of 43 rural tribal villages in Alaska, he published a monthly newspaper in support of issues concerning tribal members, including subsistence hunting, fishing rights, tribal court authority, and designation of Indian Country status. He also supported their positions with a vigorous program of periodic guest columns in Alaska’s major newspapers, written under the byline of the organization’s president. Tom is an avid outdoors enthusiast who enjoys both consumptive and non-consumptive pursuits. Among his favorite activities are drift boating to fly fish for wild trout, hunting wild turkeys, hiking, camping, and photographing nature.
